Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$4.4K
$88.59
96.2¢ → 98.1¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mishipolis | Noavg 95.5¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | +$73.99 | 47% 2696-3063 (5759) |
NL nlpredmtt | Noavg 97.1¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$16.39 | 55% 146-120 (266) |
ME merod | Noavg 98.5¢ | $197.16 | $196.94 | -$0.23 | 55% 1471-1219 (2690) |
KO korda77 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $177.3 | $177.12 | -$0.18 | 52% 2641-2419 (5060) |
 probability | Noavg 96¢ | $120 | $123 | +$2.38 | 42% 1226-1670 (2896) |
RI Rin2x<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $74.03 | $73.8 | -$0.56 | 83% 1437-286 (1723) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $6.9 | $3.7 | -$3.2 | 46% 1531-1778 (3309) |
Invested
$2,665.91
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$73.99
Record
47%
2696-3063 (5759)
Invested
$1,044.11
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$16.39
Record
55%
146-120 (266)
Invested
$197.16
Value
$196.94
PnL
-$0.23
Record
55%
1471-1219 (2690)
Invested
$177.3
Value
$177.12
PnL
-$0.18
Record
52%
2641-2419 (5060)
probabilityInvested
$120
Value
$123
PnL
+$2.38
Record
42%
1226-1670 (2896)
Invested
$74.03
Value
$73.8
PnL
-$0.56
Record
83%
1437-286 (1723)
Invested
$6.9
Value
$3.7
PnL
-$3.2
Record
46%
1531-1778 (3309)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.