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probabilityCTR<$100NoYes
StudyPredictionCTR<$100NoNoNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?
Resolved Yes. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
No 75%
Total Value
$50
Combined PnL
-$285.29
Smart Money Signal
No
4 of 5 top traders (80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares963
Combined PnL-$295.29
Yes1 trader
Total Value$50
Total Shares50
Combined PnL+$10
No — 80%Yes — 20%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
probabilityCTR<$100 | Noavg 24.4¢ | $82.85 | — | -$139.06 | 42% 1249-1701 (2950) |
RI Rin2x<$100 | Yesavg 80¢ | $40 | $50 | +$10 | 84% 1704-313 (2017) |
StudyPredictionCTR<$100 | Noavg 19¢ | $54.87 | — | -$102.25 | 51% 3778-3594 (7372) |
MI mishipolisCTR<$100 | Noavg 16.1¢ | $53.99 | — | -$53.99 | 48% 3097-3392 (6489) |
01 01258787xy48487484545122CTR<$100 | Noavg 17¢ | — | — | +$0 | 65% 235-129 (364) |
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$82.85
Value
—
PnL
-$139.06
Record
42%
1249-1701 (2950)
RI
Rin2x<$100Invested
$40
Value
$50
PnL
+$10
Record
84%
1704-313 (2017)
StudyPredictionCTR<$100Invested
$54.87
Value
—
PnL
-$102.25
Record
51%
3778-3594 (7372)
MI
mishipolisCTR<$100Invested
$53.99
Value
—
PnL
-$53.99
Record
48%
3097-3392 (6489)
01
01258787xy48487484545122CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
65%
235-129 (364)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xe44cfce8...648e9a
Slug
f1-united-states-grand-prix-driver-podium-verstappen-2026-10-25