Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.1K
$187.58
70.7¢ → 99.6¢
+41% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mishipolis | Noavg 60.9¢ | $405.03 | $660.72 | +$134.12 | 48% 3001-3298 (6299) |
 probability | Noavg 79.7¢ | $226.21 | $294.46 | +$55.34 | 42% 1247-1693 (2940) |
RO Rock.San<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $83.15 | $83.53 | +$0.38 | 89% 8567-1034 (9601) |
RI Rin2x<$100 | Noavg 89.7¢ | $22.24 | $24.58 | -$0.91 | 85% 1701-312 (2013) |
 StudyPredictionCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $1.43 | $5.49 | -$1.34 | 51% 3745-3568 (7313) |
Invested
$405.03
Value
$660.72
PnL
+$134.12
Record
48%
3001-3298 (6299)
probabilityInvested
$226.21
Value
$294.46
PnL
+$55.34
Record
42%
1247-1693 (2940)
Invested
$83.15
Value
$83.53
PnL
+$0.38
Record
89%
8567-1034 (9601)
Invested
$22.24
Value
$24.58
PnL
-$0.91
Record
85%
1701-312 (2013)
StudyPredictionCTR<$100Invested
$1.43
Value
$5.49
PnL
-$1.34
Record
51%
3745-3568 (7313)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.