Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 98¢ · $314 held · ends Nov 1

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$314.18

Combined PnL

-$95.58

Smart Money Entry

74.3¢ → 97.5¢

+31% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$226.56

Total Shares280

Combined PnL+$3.02

No3 traders

Total Value$87.62

Total Shares817

Combined PnL-$98.59

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GL Gladius7	Yesavg 73¢	$167.66	$186.06	+$5.77	46% 78-90 (168)
StudyPredictionCTR	Noavg 24¢	$161.88	$74.19	-$87.68	51% 3660-3515 (7175)
RI Rin2x<$100	Yesavg 80.5¢	$40.25	$40.5	-$2.75	84% 1453-286 (1739)
probabilityCTR<$100	Noavg 27.3¢	$9.12	$7.55	-$1.57	42% 1236-1679 (2915)
MI mishipolisCTR<$100	Noavg 20.7¢	$15.22	$5.88	-$9.34	47% 2828-3171 (5999)

Gladius7

Yes

Invested

$167.66

Value

$186.06

PnL

+$5.77

Record

46%

78-90 (168)

StudyPredictionCTR

Invested

$161.88

Value

$74.19

PnL

-$87.68

Record

51%

3660-3515 (7175)

Rin2x<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.25

Value

$40.5

PnL

-$2.75

Record

84%

1453-286 (1739)

probabilityCTR<$100

Invested

$9.12

Value

$7.55

PnL

-$1.57

Record

42%

1236-1679 (2915)

mishipolisCTR<$100

Invested

$15.22

Value

$5.88

PnL

-$9.34

Record

47%

2828-3171 (5999)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.