Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (64%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Ethereum Up or Down on October 27?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Up (83%) · Up at 37¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Up
6
Up 83%
$7.0K
-$307.71
40¢ → 36.5¢
-9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 37%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Down 64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HaileyWelchCTR | Upavg 40¢ | $5.8K | $5.3K | -$148.72 | 54% 236-198 (434) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Upavg 40¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$140 | 65% 2230-1215 (3445) |
TO TokorCTR | Upavg 40¢ | $158 | $144.18 | -$13.83 | 63% 734-423 (1157) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR<$100 | Upavg 40.5¢ | $80.56 | $72.62 | -$6.95 | 59% 981-684 (1665) |
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100 | Upavg 37.6¢ | $15.94 | $15.47 | -$0.47 | 59% 823-577 (1400) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $5.5 | $7.75 | +$2.25 | 56% 2425-1891 (4316) |
HaileyWelchCTRInvested
$5,795.04
Value
$5.3K
PnL
-$148.72
Record
54%
236-198 (434)
Invested
$1,600
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$140
Record
65%
2230-1215 (3445)
Invested
$158
Value
$144.18
PnL
-$13.83
Record
63%
734-423 (1157)
Invested
$80.56
Value
$72.62
PnL
-$6.95
Record
59%
981-684 (1665)
Invested
$15.94
Value
$15.47
PnL
-$0.47
Record
59%
823-577 (1400)
Invested
$5.5
Value
$7.75
PnL
+$2.25
Record
56%
2425-1891 (4316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.