Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (54%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Ethereum Up or Down on October 26?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Up (80%) · Up at 47¢ · $430 held · ends Oct 26

Up47¢Down53¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 80%

Total Value

$430.05

Combined PnL

-$83.27

Smart Money Entry

55.3¢ → 46.5¢

-16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 47%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Down 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up47%

Down54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$424.4

Total Shares882

Combined PnL-$84.26

Down1 trader

Total Value$5.65

Total Shares11

Combined PnL+$1

Up — 80%Down — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR	Upavg 50.7¢	$203	$196	-$7	55% 547-443 (990)
HaileyWelchCTR	Upavg 60.2¢	$247.44	$172.62	-$74.82	51% 128-123 (251)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 59¢	$65.19	$41	-$3.95	56% 41347-32823 (74170)
TO TokorCTR<$100	Upavg 44¢	$13.27	$14.78	+$1.51	62% 408-246 (654)
GO gobblewobble<$100	Downavg 42¢	$4.65	$5.65	+$1	55% 414-332 (746)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR

Invested

$203

Value

$196

PnL

-$7

Record

55%

547-443 (990)

HaileyWelchCTR

Invested

$247.44

Value

$172.62

PnL

-$74.82

Record

51%

128-123 (251)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$65.19

Value

$41

PnL

-$3.95

Record

56%

41347-32823 (74170)

TokorCTR<$100

Invested

$13.27

Value

$14.78

PnL

+$1.51

Record

62%

408-246 (654)

gobblewobble<$100

Down

Invested

$4.65

Value

$5.65

PnL

+$1

Record

55%

414-332 (746)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 47%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Down 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.