Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 6AM ET
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Up
1
Up 100%
3 arb excluded
$940.1
$1.02
Research grade
NeutralUp at 50%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $679.33 | $656.58 | -$22.75 | 86% 42207-6788 (48995) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.9¢ | $303.45 | $338.01 | +$34.57 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59¢ | $375.88 | $318.57 | -$57.31 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 67.9¢ | $212.24 | $190.91 | -$21.33 | 82% 26523-5688 (32211) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67.9¢ | $129.91 | $95.68 | -$34.24 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.2¢ | $82.33 | $95.24 | +$12.91 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Upavg 48.3¢ | $46.05 | $47.07 | +$1.02 | 58% 6110-4495 (10605) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 57.1¢ | $25.12 | $45.53 | +$20.41 | 52% 5618-5221 (10839) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 2.1¢ | $1.04 | $24.44 | +$23.4 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.1¢ | $24.08 | $21.09 | -$2.99 |
Invested
$679.33
Value
$656.58
PnL
-$22.75
Record
86%
42207-6788 (48995)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$212.24
Value
$190.91
PnL
-$21.33
Record
82%
26523-5688 (32211)
Both legs:
Invested
$46.05
Value
$47.07
PnL
+$1.02
Record
58%
6110-4495 (10605)
Invested
$25.12
Value
$45.53
PnL
+$20.41
Record
52%
5618-5221 (10839)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.