Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 4AM ET
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Down
5
Down 100%
$1.2K
$78.94
84.7¢ → 99.5¢
+17% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 82.6¢ | $735.04 | $863.63 | +$128.59 | 86% 39944-6718 (46662) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 93.8¢ | $252.03 | $218.34 | -$33.69 | 82% 25791-5637 (31428) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 89¢ | $129.35 | $117.34 | -$12.01 | 58% 6067-4456 (10523) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 53.6¢ | $11.65 | $10.87 | -$0.78 | 52% 5547-5155 (10702) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 77.2¢ | $9.02 | $5.85 | -$3.18 | 56% 33384-26147 (59531) |
Invested
$735.04
Value
$863.63
PnL
+$128.59
Record
86%
39944-6718 (46662)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$252.03
Value
$218.34
PnL
-$33.69
Record
82%
25791-5637 (31428)
Invested
$129.35
Value
$117.34
PnL
-$12.01
Record
58%
6067-4456 (10523)
Invested
$11.65
Value
$10.87
PnL
-$0.78
Record
52%
5547-5155 (10702)
Invested
$9.02
Value
$5.85
PnL
-$3.18
Record
56%
33384-26147 (59531)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.