Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 27?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$5.5K
$85.63
97.9¢ → 98.6¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $5.1K | $5.1K | +$82.22 | 65% 2304-1251 (3555) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $316.75 | $316.42 | -$0.33 | 59% 997-689 (1686) |
TO Tokor<$100 | Noavg 95.6¢ | $97.12 | $96.59 | +$3.74 | 64% 738-423 (1161) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.