Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 26?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$6.4K
$253.37
95.2¢ → 99.9¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $5.4K | $5.7K | +$270.06 | 65% 1435-766 (2201) |
 Facaie | Noavg 99.9¢ | $500 | $499.25 | -$0.25 | 93% 806-59 (865) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $195 | $194.71 | +$4.39 | 57% 678-512 (1190) |
0X 0xDB5CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $3.9 | $0.88 | -$3.03 | 56% 1284-1021 (2305) |
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.9¢ | $18.07 | $0.27 | -$17.8 | 56% 638-495 (1133) |
Invested
$5,403.41
Value
$5.7K
PnL
+$270.06
Record
65%
1435-766 (2201)
FacaieInvested
$500
Value
$499.25
PnL
-$0.25
Record
93%
806-59 (865)
Invested
$195
Value
$194.71
PnL
+$4.39
Record
57%
678-512 (1190)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$0.88
PnL
-$3.03
Record
56%
1284-1021 (2305)
Invested
$18.07
Value
$0.27
PnL
-$17.8
Record
56%
638-495 (1133)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.