Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 28?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 87¢ · $37K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$37.2K
$2.6K
80.5¢ → 86.5¢
+7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KI kingofcoinflips | Noavg 80.3¢ | $25.7K | $27.5K | +$2.0K | 54% 379-327 (706) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 81¢ | $6.5K | $6.9K | +$440 | 65% 2315-1255 (3570) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 81.3¢ | $2.4K | $2.6K | +$156.01 | 59% 998-689 (1687) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 86¢ | $120.4 | $121.1 | +$0.7 | 64% 743-425 (1168) |
GO gobblewobble<$100 | Noavg 81.3¢ | $51.48 | $54.81 | +$3.32 | 59% 841-587 (1428) |
Invested
$25,682.83
Value
$27.5K
PnL
+$2.0K
Record
54%
379-327 (706)
Invested
$6,480
Value
$6.9K
PnL
+$440
Record
65%
2315-1255 (3570)
Invested
$2,446.53
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$156.01
Record
59%
998-689 (1687)
Invested
$120.4
Value
$121.1
PnL
+$0.7
Record
64%
743-425 (1168)
Invested
$51.48
Value
$54.81
PnL
+$3.32
Record
59%
841-587 (1428)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.