Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 27?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 91¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.7K
-$359.06
74.5¢ → 91¢
+22% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 63.6¢ | $894.66 | $815.9 | -$78.76 | 65% 1516-806 (2322) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 86.3¢ | $808.39 | $543.57 | -$264.82 | 57% 698-522 (1220) |
GO gobblewobble | Noavg 84.9¢ | $246.86 | $260.13 | +$13.27 | 57% 661-503 (1164) |
AJ AJSV<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $88 | $58 | -$30 | 36% 13969-24716 (38685) |
KI kingofcoinflips<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $8.37 | $9.62 | +$1.25 | 54% 243-209 (452) |
Invested
$894.66
Value
$815.9
PnL
-$78.76
Record
65%
1516-806 (2322)
Invested
$808.39
Value
$543.57
PnL
-$264.82
Record
57%
698-522 (1220)
Invested
$246.86
Value
$260.13
PnL
+$13.27
Record
57%
661-503 (1164)
Invested
$88
Value
$58
PnL
-$30
Record
36%
13969-24716 (38685)
Invested
$8.37
Value
$9.62
PnL
+$1.25
Record
54%
243-209 (452)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.