Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 27?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 68¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 27

Yes68¢No32¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$66.97

Smart Money Entry

64.1¢ → 67.5¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares5,383

Combined PnL+$802.86

No2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares5,280

Combined PnL-$735.88

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO Tokor	Yesavg 62¢	$2.5K	$3.2K	+$680.85	64% 539-305 (844)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR	Noavg 35.1¢	$1.9K	$1.2K	-$734.12	65% 1276-701 (1977)
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394	Yesavg 70.6¢	$937.75	$1.0K	+$111.26	57% 669-509 (1178)
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$41.8	$40.04	-$1.76	56% 627-491 (1118)
HaileyWelch<$100	Yesavg 57.5¢	$28.75	$39.5	+$10.75	54% 166-144 (310)

Tokor

Yes

Invested

$2,483.1

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$680.85

Record

64%

539-305 (844)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR

Invested

$1,903.13

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$734.12

Record

65%

1276-701 (1977)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394

Yes

Invested

$937.75

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$111.26

Record

57%

669-509 (1178)

gobblewobbleCTR<$100

Invested

$41.8

Value

$40.04

PnL

-$1.76

Record

56%

627-491 (1118)

HaileyWelch<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.75

Value

$39.5

PnL

+$10.75

Record

54%

166-144 (310)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.0%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.