Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 27?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 98¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 27

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$106.98

Smart Money Entry

95.8¢ → 97.9¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares6,310

Combined PnL+$92.01

No1 trader

Total Value$172.41

Total Shares3,748

Combined PnL+$14.97

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 95.9¢	$5.6K	$5.7K	+$92.55	65% 1516-806 (2322)
0X 0xDB5	Yesavg 95.3¢	$353.45	$353.8	+$0.35	56% 1363-1054 (2417)
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR	Noavg 4.2¢	$157.44	$172.41	+$14.97	57% 698-522 (1220)
AJ AJSV<$100	Yesavg 96.2¢	$96.2	$95.4	-$0.8	36% 13969-24716 (38685)
GO gobblewobble<$100	Yesavg 95.8¢	$22.35	$22.26	-$0.09	57% 661-503 (1164)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$5,575.01

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$92.55

Record

65%

1516-806 (2322)

0xDB5

Yes

Invested

$353.45

Value

$353.8

PnL

+$0.35

Record

56%

1363-1054 (2417)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR

Invested

$157.44

Value

$172.41

PnL

+$14.97

Record

57%

698-522 (1220)

AJSV<$100

Yes

Invested

$96.2

Value

$95.4

PnL

-$0.8

Record

36%

13969-24716 (38685)

gobblewobble<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.35

Value

$22.26

PnL

-$0.09

Record

57%

661-503 (1164)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.