Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 26?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 99¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$9.4K
-$186.75
96.5¢ → 98.9¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 96.4¢ | $7.5K | $7.2K | -$385.61 | 65% 1365-739 (2104) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 97.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$77.09 | 57% 675-510 (1185) |
GO gobblewobble | Yesavg 94.9¢ | $451.45 | $435.6 | -$15.85 | 56% 631-492 (1123) |
0X 0xDB5CTR | Noavg 3.4¢ | $114.07 | $236.21 | +$142.52 | 55% 1224-990 (2214) |
AJ AJSV<$100 | Yesavg 96.4¢ | $96.4 | $91.5 | -$4.9 | 36% 13723-24173 (37896) |
Invested
$7,538.48
Value
$7.2K
PnL
-$385.61
Record
65%
1365-739 (2104)
Invested
$1,372.49
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$77.09
Record
57%
675-510 (1185)
Invested
$451.45
Value
$435.6
PnL
-$15.85
Record
56%
631-492 (1123)
Invested
$114.07
Value
$236.21
PnL
+$142.52
Record
55%
1224-990 (2214)
Invested
$96.4
Value
$91.5
PnL
-$4.9
Record
36%
13723-24173 (37896)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.