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ohioism<$100DownUpUp
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$57.52
Combined PnL
-$11.13
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares20
Combined PnL-$10.5
Down2 traders
Total Value$10.21
Total Shares10
Combined PnL-$0.63
Up — 60%Down — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 62.8¢ | $87.75 | $47.31 | -$40.44 | 57% 68565-52168 (120733) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 62.8¢ | $69.3 | — | -$69.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39¢ | $18.45 | $47.31 | +$28.86 | |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $8.3 | — | -$8.3 | 61% 93033-58466 (151499) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $7.05 | $5.21 | -$1.84 | 66% 123499-63579 (187078) |
ohioism<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $3.79 | $5 | +$1.21 | 64% 39486-22518 (62004) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 22¢ | $2.2 | — | -$2.2 | 58% 59847-43689 (103536) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 41.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 59% 21449-14698 (36147) |
UN
uninformedflowwARB<$100Invested
$87.75
Value
$47.31
PnL
-$40.44
Record
57%
68565-52168 (120733)
Both legs:
Up$69.362.8¢-$69.3
Down$18.4539¢+$28.86
AS
asidjasiodjaCTR<$100Invested
$8.3
Value
—
PnL
-$8.3
Record
61%
93033-58466 (151499)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$7.05
Value
$5.21
PnL
-$1.84
Record
66%
123499-63579 (187078)
ohioism<$100Invested
$3.79
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.21
Record
64%
39486-22518 (62004)
0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100Invested
$2.2
Value
—
PnL
-$2.2
Record
58%
59847-43689 (103536)
RA
rabadabadooCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
21449-14698 (36147)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xfa3d2649...948667
Slug
eth-updown-5m-1793068500