Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
15
Up 47%
$357.59
-$247.08
Smart Money Signal
7 of 15 top traders (47%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2CTR | Upavg 35¢ | $192.51 | — | -$192.51 | 51% 6206-5881 (12087) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 89.8¢ | $155.94 | $125.34 | -$30.6 | 55% 43017-35460 (78477) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $53.38 | $53.92 | +$0.54 | 93% 21903-1696 (23599) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $41.8 | — | -$41.8 | 46% 37389-43600 (80989) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 69.3¢ | $27.35 | $36.94 | +$9.59 | 63% 49772-29482 (79254) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $44.68 | $39.48 | -$5.2 | 65% 121395-64704 (186099) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Upavg 34.8¢ | $17.15 | — | -$17.15 | 66% 97619-50176 (147795) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 57.4¢ | $14.55 | — | -$14.55 | 56% 57185-44208 (101393) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 48.1¢ | $22.08 | $45.89 | +$23.81 | 66% 110218-56576 (166794) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 36.5¢ | $6.12 | $10 | +$3.88 | 55% 16665-13373 (30038) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 29.9¢ | $9.77 | $22.24 | +$12.47 | 52% 88053-82440 (170493) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 36.5¢ | $8.68 | $23.78 | +$15.1 | 59% 37019-26207 (63226) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $3.45 | — | -$3.45 | 64% 39390-22458 (61848) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 57.5¢ | $5.9 | — | -$5.9 | 51% 19436-18664 (38100) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 13¢ | $1.3 | — | -$1.3 | 58% 59659-43523 (103182) |
Invested
$192.51
Value
—
PnL
-$192.51
Record
51%
6206-5881 (12087)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$155.94
Value
$125.34
PnL
-$30.6
Record
55%
43017-35460 (78477)
Invested
$53.38
Value
$53.92
PnL
+$0.54
Record
93%
21903-1696 (23599)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$41.8
Value
—
PnL
-$41.8
Record
46%
37389-43600 (80989)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$27.35
Value
$36.94
PnL
+$9.59
Record
63%
49772-29482 (79254)
Invested
$44.68
Value
$39.48
PnL
-$5.2
Record
65%
121395-64704 (186099)
Invested
$17.15
Value
—
PnL
-$17.15
Record
66%
97619-50176 (147795)
Invested
$14.55
Value
—
PnL
-$14.55
Record
56%
57185-44208 (101393)
Invested
$22.08
Value
$45.89
PnL
+$23.81
Record
66%
110218-56576 (166794)
Invested
$6.12
Value
$10
PnL
+$3.88
Record
55%
16665-13373 (30038)
Invested
$9.77
Value
$22.24
PnL
+$12.47
Record
52%
88053-82440 (170493)
Invested
$8.68
Value
$23.78
PnL
+$15.1
Record
59%
37019-26207 (63226)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$3.45
Value
—
PnL
-$3.45
Record
64%
39390-22458 (61848)
Invested
$5.9
Value
—
PnL
-$5.9
Record
51%
19436-18664 (38100)
Invested
$1.3
Value
—
PnL
-$1.3
Record
58%
59659-43523 (103182)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
Down — $125.34
hoodquant
Down — $53.92
pspspsps5
CTRUp — $0
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $36.94
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $39.48
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp — $0
antsaslyku
Down — $45.89
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $10