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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET

Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

14

Up 54%

Total Value

$154.2

Combined PnL

-$213.27

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 14 top traders (57%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares524

Combined PnL-$286.5

Down6 traders

Total Value$154.2

Total Shares154

Combined PnL+$73.23

Up — 57%Down — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 27.9¢	$49.56	—	-$49.56	51% 6180-5859 (12039)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 47.2¢	$80.05	—	-$80.05	55% 16647-13358 (30005)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 53.7¢	$42.52	—	-$42.52	65% 20166-10990 (31156)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 44.9¢	$22.87	$50.9	+$28.03	58% 59607-43493 (103100)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 44.7¢	$22.42	$50.18	+$27.76	56% 57139-44178 (101317)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 61.2¢	$25.43	—	-$25.43	49% 76564-79653 (156217)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 57.9¢	$43.76	—	-$43.76	55% 42983-35443 (78426)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 28¢	$6.16	—	-$6.16	59% 36998-26188 (63186)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 55.6¢	$11.5	$20.68	+$9.18	65% 121312-64687 (185999)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 32¢	$39.02	—	-$39.02	66% 110197-56555 (166752)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 94¢	$8.27	$8.8	+$0.53	63% 49745-29472 (79217)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Downavg 65¢	$10.4	$16	+$5.6	66% 97589-50155 (147744)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 44¢	$5.51	$7.64	+$2.13	52% 87991-82424 (170415)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 58¢	—	—	+$0	51% 19428-18654 (38082)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$49.56

Value

—

PnL

-$49.56

Record

51%

6180-5859 (12039)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$80.05

Value

—

PnL

-$80.05

Record

55%

16647-13358 (30005)

Invested

$42.52

Value

—

PnL

-$42.52

Record

65%

20166-10990 (31156)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$22.87

Value

$50.9

PnL

+$28.03

Record

58%

59607-43493 (103100)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$22.42

Value

$50.18

PnL

+$27.76

Record

56%

57139-44178 (101317)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$25.43

Value

—

PnL

-$25.43

Record

49%

76564-79653 (156217)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$43.76

Value

—

PnL

-$43.76

Record

55%

42983-35443 (78426)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$6.16

Value

—

PnL

-$6.16

Record

59%

36998-26188 (63186)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$11.5

Value

$20.68

PnL

+$9.18

Record

65%

121312-64687 (185999)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$39.02

Value

—

PnL

-$39.02

Record

66%

110197-56555 (166752)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Invested

$8.27

Value

$8.8

PnL

+$0.53

Record

63%

49745-29472 (79217)

Bonereaper<$100

Invested

$10.4

Value

$16

PnL

+$5.6

Record

66%

97589-50155 (147744)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$5.51

Value

$7.64

PnL

+$2.13

Record

52%

87991-82424 (170415)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

19428-18654 (38082)

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 14 top traders (57%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x53f2f6e7...99f37f

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1793058600

Traders in this Market

ply-pm2

Up — $0

Kathod-Shi-14

Up — $0

aaa221

Up — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $50.9

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $50.18

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $0

MayorMamdani

Up — $0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $20.68

antsaslyku

Up — $0

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