Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET
Resolved Down. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
16
Up 40%
$571.99
$108.21
Smart Money Signal
7 of 16 top traders (44%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2CTR | Upavg 50.5¢ | $162.51 | — | -$162.51 | 51% 6180-5859 (12039) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $43.22 | $99.99 | +$56.77 | 59% 36998-26188 (63186) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 70.6¢ | $39.4 | — | -$39.4 | 65% 20166-10990 (31156) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $67.47 | $56 | -$11.47 | 55% 42983-35443 (78426) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $61.73 | $50.29 | -$11.44 | 56% 57139-44178 (101317) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 8.1¢ | $14.41 | $178.98 | +$164.57 | 49% 76564-79653 (156217) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $15.32 | $30.03 | +$14.71 | 58% 50116-36275 (86391) |
HO hoodquantCTR<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $14.55 | — | -$14.55 | 93% 21872-1696 (23568) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 4.8¢ | $5.18 | $107.74 | +$102.56 | 46% 37365-43576 (80941) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $7.1 | — | -$7.1 | 63% 49745-29472 (79217) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 28.4¢ | $2.58 | — | -$2.58 | 66% 110197-56555 (166752) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 30¢ | $22.8 | $20.67 | +$6.57 | 65% 121312-64687 (185999) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $9.45 | $15 | +$5.55 | 66% 97589-50155 (147744) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $4.4 | — | -$4.4 | 55% 16647-13358 (30005) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 17.8¢ | $2.37 | $13.29 | +$10.92 | 52% 87991-82424 (170415) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19428-18654 (38082) |
Invested
$162.51
Value
—
PnL
-$162.51
Record
51%
6180-5859 (12039)
Invested
$43.22
Value
$99.99
PnL
+$56.77
Record
59%
36998-26188 (63186)
Invested
$39.4
Value
—
PnL
-$39.4
Record
65%
20166-10990 (31156)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$67.47
Value
$56
PnL
-$11.47
Record
55%
42983-35443 (78426)
Invested
$61.73
Value
$50.29
PnL
-$11.44
Record
56%
57139-44178 (101317)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$14.41
Value
$178.98
PnL
+$164.57
Record
49%
76564-79653 (156217)
Invested
$15.32
Value
$30.03
PnL
+$14.71
Record
58%
50116-36275 (86391)
Invested
$14.55
Value
—
PnL
-$14.55
Record
93%
21872-1696 (23568)
pspspsps5Invested
$5.18
Value
$107.74
PnL
+$102.56
Record
46%
37365-43576 (80941)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$7.1
Value
—
PnL
-$7.1
Record
63%
49745-29472 (79217)
Invested
$2.58
Value
—
PnL
-$2.58
Record
66%
110197-56555 (166752)
Invested
$22.8
Value
$20.67
PnL
+$6.57
Record
65%
121312-64687 (185999)
Invested
$9.45
Value
$15
PnL
+$5.55
Record
66%
97589-50155 (147744)
Invested
$4.4
Value
—
PnL
-$4.4
Record
55%
16647-13358 (30005)
Invested
$2.37
Value
$13.29
PnL
+$10.92
Record
52%
87991-82424 (170415)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19428-18654 (38082)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $99.99
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
Down — $56
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $50.29
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $178.98
PBot-6
Down — $30.03
hoodquant
CTRUp — $0
pspspsps5
Down — $107.74
UpandDownSyndrome
CTRUp — $0