Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET
Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
14
Down 57%
3 arb excluded
$925.11
$-3.1K
Smart Money Signal
8 of 14 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO royalanchor02CTR | Downavg 76.4¢ | $1.4K | — | $-1.4K | 54% 38-32 (70) |
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR | Downavg 75.4¢ | $1.4K | — | $-1.4K | 52% 268-243 (511) |
 AtomforgeCTR | Downavg 77.7¢ | $393.26 | — | -$393.26 | 65% 3707-2000 (5707) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 65.9¢ | $236.93 | $307.5 | +$70.58 | 51% 6161-5827 (11988) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 26.4¢ | $81.25 | $307.5 | +$226.25 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65.9¢ | $155.68 | — | -$155.68 | |
TH thesidehustleARB<$100 | Downavg 62.3¢ | $102.96 | $109.98 | +$7.02 | 54% 9897-8393 (18290) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62.3¢ | $62.77 | — | -$62.77 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.5¢ | $40.19 | $109.98 | +$69.79 | |
 OhioRiskManagementARB<$100 | Downavg 61.1¢ | $61.37 | $123.9 | +$62.53 | 49% 76421-79380 (155801) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 17.4¢ | $21.5 | $123.9 | +$102.4 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.1¢ | $39.87 | — | -$39.87 | |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR<$100 | Downavg 80.6¢ | $97.97 | — | -$97.97 | 53% 1936-1748 (3684) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Downavg 58¢ | $95.08 | — | -$54.47 | 49% 21957-22955 (44912) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 18.5¢ | $22.92 | $123.71 | +$100.79 | 46% 37349-43554 (80903) |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 23.1¢ | $28.89 | $125.13 | +$96.24 | 55% 42952-35402 (78354) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 30.6¢ | $59.51 | $60 | +$45.52 | 65% 20113-10941 (31054) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 37.4¢ | $22.35 | $59.81 | +$37.46 | 55% 16610-13320 (29930) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $17.2 | — | -$17.2 | 65% 119555-63208 (182763) |
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $5.72 | — | -$5.72 | 12% 17689-129010 (146699) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $2.95 | — | -$2.95 | 59% 36938-26155 (63093) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $13 | $10 | +$0.8 | 51% 19411-18640 (38051) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $3.25 | $5.08 | +$1.83 | 52% 87718-82041 (169759) |
Invested
$1,409.1
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
54%
38-32 (70)
Invested
$1,413.43
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
52%
268-243 (511)
AtomforgeCTRInvested
$393.26
Value
—
PnL
-$393.26
Record
65%
3707-2000 (5707)
Invested
$236.93
Value
$307.5
PnL
+$70.58
Record
51%
6161-5827 (11988)
Both legs:
Invested
$102.96
Value
$109.98
PnL
+$7.02
Record
54%
9897-8393 (18290)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100Invested
$61.37
Value
$123.9
PnL
+$62.53
Record
49%
76421-79380 (155801)
Both legs:
Invested
$97.97
Value
—
PnL
-$97.97
Record
53%
1936-1748 (3684)
Invested
$95.08
Value
—
PnL
-$54.47
Record
49%
21957-22955 (44912)
pspspsps5Invested
$22.92
Value
$123.71
PnL
+$100.79
Record
46%
37349-43554 (80903)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$28.89
Value
$125.13
PnL
+$96.24
Record
55%
42952-35402 (78354)
Invested
$59.51
Value
$60
PnL
+$45.52
Record
65%
20113-10941 (31054)
Invested
$22.35
Value
$59.81
PnL
+$37.46
Record
55%
16610-13320 (29930)
Invested
$17.2
Value
—
PnL
-$17.2
Record
65%
119555-63208 (182763)
Invested
$5.72
Value
—
PnL
-$5.72
Record
12%
17689-129010 (146699)
Invested
$2.95
Value
—
PnL
-$2.95
Record
59%
36938-26155 (63093)
Invested
$13
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.8
Record
51%
19411-18640 (38051)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$5.08
PnL
+$1.83
Record
52%
87718-82041 (169759)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
royalanchor02
CTRDown — $0
oxe78sh4w98
CTRDown — $0
Atomforge
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
thesidehustle
ARBArbitrage — excluded
OhioRiskManagement
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xdc27...afdd9a
CTRDown — $0
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
CTRDown — $0
pspspsps5
Up — $123.71
MayorMamdani
Up — $125.13