Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 25% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
12
Down 25%
2 arb excluded
$1.5K
$99.8
Smart Money Signal
3 of 12 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR | Downavg 51.1¢ | $373.76 | — | -$373.76 | 52% 268-243 (511) |
BI bisonarctic | Upavg 37.4¢ | $295.05 | $787.93 | +$492.88 | 52% 14-13 (27) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 56.8¢ | $233.68 | $250.35 | +$16.66 | 51% 6161-5827 (11988) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.8¢ | $142.23 | $250.35 | +$108.12 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.8¢ | $91.45 | — | -$91.45 | |
 AtomforgeARB<$100 | Downavg 49.2¢ | $149 | $159.18 | +$10.17 | 65% 3707-2000 (5707) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.2¢ | $92.65 | — | -$92.65 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.4¢ | $56.35 | $159.18 | +$102.83 | |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 52.8¢ | $78.79 | $93.51 | +$14.71 | 55% 42952-35402 (78354) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Downavg 61.5¢ | $62.33 | — | -$62.33 | 54% 9897-8393 (18290) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR<$100 | Downavg 47.1¢ | $29.93 | — | -$29.93 | 53% 1936-1748 (3684) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 67.3¢ | $95.62 | $25.34 | -$26.76 | 65% 20113-10941 (31054) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 39.2¢ | $21.32 | $54.39 | +$33.07 | 46% 37349-43554 (80903) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 40.8¢ | $19.16 | $47 | +$27.84 | 49% 76421-79380 (155801) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 83¢ | $21.88 | $24.92 | +$3.04 | 64% 39322-22428 (61750) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $9.4 | $20 | +$10.6 | 65% 119555-63208 (182763) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $5.75 | $10.45 | +$4.7 | 55% 16610-13320 (29930) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $5.1 | $10.85 | +$5.75 | 51% 19411-18640 (38051) |
Invested
$373.76
Value
—
PnL
-$373.76
Record
52%
268-243 (511)
Invested
$295.05
Value
$787.93
PnL
+$492.88
Record
52%
14-13 (27)
Invested
$233.68
Value
$250.35
PnL
+$16.66
Record
51%
6161-5827 (11988)
Both legs:
AtomforgeARB<$100Invested
$149
Value
$159.18
PnL
+$10.17
Record
65%
3707-2000 (5707)
Both legs:
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$78.79
Value
$93.51
PnL
+$14.71
Record
55%
42952-35402 (78354)
Invested
$62.33
Value
—
PnL
-$62.33
Record
54%
9897-8393 (18290)
Invested
$29.93
Value
—
PnL
-$29.93
Record
53%
1936-1748 (3684)
Invested
$95.62
Value
$25.34
PnL
-$26.76
Record
65%
20113-10941 (31054)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$21.32
Value
$54.39
PnL
+$33.07
Record
46%
37349-43554 (80903)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$19.16
Value
$47
PnL
+$27.84
Record
49%
76421-79380 (155801)
ohioism<$100Invested
$21.88
Value
$24.92
PnL
+$3.04
Record
64%
39322-22428 (61750)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$20
PnL
+$10.6
Record
65%
119555-63208 (182763)
Invested
$5.75
Value
$10.45
PnL
+$4.7
Record
55%
16610-13320 (29930)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$10.85
PnL
+$5.75
Record
51%
19411-18640 (38051)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
oxe78sh4w98
CTRDown — $0
bisonarctic
Up — $787.93
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Atomforge
ARBArbitrage — excluded
MayorMamdani
Up — $93.51
thesidehustle
CTRDown — $0
0xdc27...afdd9a
CTRDown — $0
aaa221
Up — $25.34
pspspsps5
Up — $54.39
OhioRiskManagement
Up — $47