Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
12
Up 58%
1 arb excluded
$334.84
$57.39
Smart Money Signal
7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 46.2¢ | $144.72 | $118.43 | -$26.3 | 51% 6161-5827 (11988) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.3¢ | $56.07 | $118.43 | +$62.35 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.2¢ | $88.65 | — | -$88.65 | |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $77.48 | $100 | +$122.52 | 54% 9897-8393 (18290) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 56.4¢ | $40.14 | $48.2 | +$8.06 | 55% 42952-35402 (78354) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 67.8¢ | $41.97 | $32 | -$9.97 | 49% 76421-79380 (155801) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $21.96 | $29.27 | +$7.31 | 63% 49709-29446 (79155) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 82¢ | $14.43 | — | -$14.43 | 46% 37349-43554 (80903) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $14.71 | — | -$14.71 | 58% 50034-36187 (86221) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Upavg 57.6¢ | $12.09 | — | -$12.09 | 66% 97323-49861 (147184) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $11.6 | — | -$11.6 | 65% 20113-10941 (31054) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $8.75 | — | -$8.75 | 66% 109413-55894 (165307) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 87¢ | $4.35 | — | -$4.35 | 65% 119555-63208 (182763) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 67.8¢ | $10.3 | — | -$10.3 | 55% 16610-13320 (29930) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 18¢ | $1.25 | $6.94 | +$5.69 | 52% 87718-82041 (169759) |
Invested
$144.72
Value
$118.43
PnL
-$26.3
Record
51%
6161-5827 (11988)
Both legs:
Invested
$77.48
Value
$100
PnL
+$122.52
Record
54%
9897-8393 (18290)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$40.14
Value
$48.2
PnL
+$8.06
Record
55%
42952-35402 (78354)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$41.97
Value
$32
PnL
-$9.97
Record
49%
76421-79380 (155801)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$21.96
Value
$29.27
PnL
+$7.31
Record
63%
49709-29446 (79155)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$14.43
Value
—
PnL
-$14.43
Record
46%
37349-43554 (80903)
Invested
$14.71
Value
—
PnL
-$14.71
Record
58%
50034-36187 (86221)
Invested
$12.09
Value
—
PnL
-$12.09
Record
66%
97323-49861 (147184)
Invested
$11.6
Value
—
PnL
-$11.6
Record
65%
20113-10941 (31054)
Invested
$8.75
Value
—
PnL
-$8.75
Record
66%
109413-55894 (165307)
Invested
$4.35
Value
—
PnL
-$4.35
Record
65%
119555-63208 (182763)
Invested
$10.3
Value
—
PnL
-$10.3
Record
55%
16610-13320 (29930)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$6.94
PnL
+$5.69
Record
52%
87718-82041 (169759)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
thesidehustle
Down — $100
MayorMamdani
Down — $48.2
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $32
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $29.27
pspspsps5
CTRUp — $0
PBot-6
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
antsaslyku
CTRUp — $0