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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET

Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Down 60%

Total Value

$233.92

Combined PnL

-$128.6

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 10 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares557
Combined PnL-$272.52
Up4 traders
Total Value$233.92
Total Shares234
Combined PnL+$143.92
Down — 60%Up — 40%
PL
ply-pm2CTR
Down

Invested

$235.84

Value

—

PnL

-$235.84

Record

51%

6161-5827 (11988)

0X
0x50f7CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$8.48

Value

—

PnL

-$8.48

Record

84%

56422-10398 (66820)

OhioRiskManagement<$100
Up

Invested

$15.5

Value

$48.23

PnL

+$32.73

Record

49%

76421-79380 (155801)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$20.1

Value

—

PnL

-$20.1

Record

55%

42952-35402 (78354)

BO
Bonereaper<$100
Up

Invested

$29

Value

$58

PnL

+$29

Record

66%

97323-49861 (147184)

KA
Kathod-Shi-14
Up

Invested

$38.7

Value

$107.69

PnL

+$68.99

Record

55%

16610-13320 (29930)

DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$4.04

Value

—

PnL

-$4.04

Record

52%

87718-82041 (169759)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Up

Invested

$6.8

Value

$20

PnL

+$13.2

Record

65%

119555-63208 (182763)

AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

66%

109413-55894 (165307)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$4

Value

—

PnL

-$4

Record

59%

36938-26155 (63093)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x4736941c...c847bb
Slug
eth-updown-5m-1793049300

Traders in this Market

PL

ply-pm2

CTR

Down — $0

-$235.84
0X

0x50f7

CTR

Down — $0

-$8.48

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $48.23

+$32.73

MayorMamdani

CTR

Down — $0

-$20.1
BO

Bonereaper

Up — $58

+$29
KA

Kathod-Shi-14

Up — $107.69

+$68.99
DV

dvasdkasodk

CTR

Down — $0

-$4.04
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $20

+$13.2
AN

antsaslyku

CTR

Down — $0

-$0.05
0X

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Down — $0

-$4
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