Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
7
Up 57%
1 arb excluded
$199.48
-$10.17
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $120.48 | $120.42 | -$0.06 | 51% 6161-5827 (11988) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57¢ | $68.61 | $120.42 | +$51.81 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54.3¢ | $51.87 | — | -$51.87 | |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $2 | — | -$2 | 46% 37349-43554 (80903) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 81.3¢ | $35.5 | — | -$35.5 | 65% 20113-10941 (31054) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 74.9¢ | $29.97 | $40 | +$10.03 | 49% 76421-79380 (155801) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 17¢ | $5.61 | $33.03 | +$27.42 | 55% 42952-35402 (78354) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 4.4¢ | $0.76 | — | -$0.76 | 84% 56422-10398 (66820) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 73.7¢ | $11.45 | — | -$11.45 | 55% 16610-13320 (29930) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 32.8¢ | $3.94 | $6.03 | +$2.09 | 52% 87718-82041 (169759) |
Invested
$120.48
Value
$120.42
PnL
-$0.06
Record
51%
6161-5827 (11988)
Both legs:
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$2
Value
—
PnL
-$2
Record
46%
37349-43554 (80903)
Invested
$35.5
Value
—
PnL
-$35.5
Record
65%
20113-10941 (31054)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$29.97
Value
$40
PnL
+$10.03
Record
49%
76421-79380 (155801)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$5.61
Value
$33.03
PnL
+$27.42
Record
55%
42952-35402 (78354)
Invested
$0.76
Value
—
PnL
-$0.76
Record
84%
56422-10398 (66820)
Invested
$11.45
Value
—
PnL
-$11.45
Record
55%
16610-13320 (29930)
Invested
$3.94
Value
$6.03
PnL
+$2.09
Record
52%
87718-82041 (169759)
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