Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Down 63%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$50.26
Smart Money Signal
10 of 18 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 34.5¢ | $315.39 | $466.88 | +$151.5 | 51% 6132-5801 (11933) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $328.63 | $331.95 | +$3.32 | 93% 21764-1691 (23455) |
 pspspsps5ARB<$100 | Downavg 55.3¢ | $84.71 | $87.88 | +$3.17 | 46% 37328-43529 (80857) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.3¢ | $48.64 | $87.88 | +$39.24 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.3¢ | $36.07 | — | -$36.07 | |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 88.9¢ | $96.52 | $70.07 | -$26.45 | 55% 42897-35362 (78259) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 33.6¢ | $31.83 | $94.64 | +$62.81 | 59% 36902-26123 (63025) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 85.7¢ | $83.04 | $59.53 | -$23.51 | 49% 76371-79329 (155700) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $46.57 | $50.08 | +$3.51 | 58% 11888-8697 (20585) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 87.9¢ | $38.92 | $30.6 | -$8.32 | 63% 49651-29409 (79060) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 69.6¢ | $62.75 | — | -$62.75 | 55% 16550-13280 (29830) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 60.4¢ | $23.18 | $28.45 | +$5.27 | 52% 87624-81970 (169594) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 69.4¢ | $42.16 | — | -$42.16 | 66% 109300-55693 (164993) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $17.88 | — | -$17.88 | 58% 59354-43324 (102678) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 76.9¢ | $42.44 | — | -$42.44 | 64% 39294-22405 (61699) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 76.6¢ | $84.83 | — | -$53.21 | 65% 20047-10914 (30961) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $12.14 | $19.9 | +$7.76 | 65% 119380-63148 (182528) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 27¢ | $5.42 | — | -$0.42 | 51% 19388-18619 (38007) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $1.61 | $3.93 | +$2.32 | 67% 22388-11204 (33592) |
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100 | Upavg 57.9¢ | $96.48 | — | +$40.12 | 52% 267-242 (509) |
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR | Upavg 57¢ | $100 | — | +$50.79 | 65% 98-52 (150) |
Invested
$315.39
Value
$466.88
PnL
+$151.5
Record
51%
6132-5801 (11933)
Invested
$328.63
Value
$331.95
PnL
+$3.32
Record
93%
21764-1691 (23455)
pspspsps5ARB<$100Invested
$84.71
Value
$87.88
PnL
+$3.17
Record
46%
37328-43529 (80857)
Both legs:
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$96.52
Value
$70.07
PnL
-$26.45
Record
55%
42897-35362 (78259)
Invested
$31.83
Value
$94.64
PnL
+$62.81
Record
59%
36902-26123 (63025)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$83.04
Value
$59.53
PnL
-$23.51
Record
49%
76371-79329 (155700)
Invested
$46.57
Value
$50.08
PnL
+$3.51
Record
58%
11888-8697 (20585)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$38.92
Value
$30.6
PnL
-$8.32
Record
63%
49651-29409 (79060)
Invested
$62.75
Value
—
PnL
-$62.75
Record
55%
16550-13280 (29830)
Invested
$23.18
Value
$28.45
PnL
+$5.27
Record
52%
87624-81970 (169594)
Invested
$42.16
Value
—
PnL
-$42.16
Record
66%
109300-55693 (164993)
Invested
$17.88
Value
—
PnL
-$17.88
Record
58%
59354-43324 (102678)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$42.44
Value
—
PnL
-$42.44
Record
64%
39294-22405 (61699)
Invested
$84.83
Value
—
PnL
-$53.21
Record
65%
20047-10914 (30961)
Invested
$12.14
Value
$19.9
PnL
+$7.76
Record
65%
119380-63148 (182528)
Invested
$5.42
Value
—
PnL
-$0.42
Record
51%
19388-18619 (38007)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$1.61
Value
$3.93
PnL
+$2.32
Record
67%
22388-11204 (33592)
Invested
$96.48
Value
—
PnL
+$40.12
Record
52%
267-242 (509)
Invested
$100
Value
—
PnL
+$50.79
Record
65%
98-52 (150)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
Down — $466.88
hoodquant
Down — $331.95
pspspsps5
ARBArbitrage — excluded
MayorMamdani
Down — $70.07
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $94.64
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $59.53
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $50.08
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $30.6
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRUp — $0
dvasdkasodk
Down — $28.45