Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 69%
9 arb excluded
$7.1K
-$105.4
Smart Money Signal
9 of 14 top traders (64%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OX oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100 | Downavg 52.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.8K | +$328.04 | 52% 267-242 (509) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.5¢ | $944.62 | $1.8K | +$854.96 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 38¢ | $526.92 | — | -$526.92 | |
RO royalanchor02ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.3¢ | $1.2K | $2.0K | +$788.4 | 54% 38-32 (70) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.3¢ | $1.0K | $2.0K | +$995.97 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.7¢ | $207.57 | — | -$207.57 | |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 62.2¢ | $677.2 | $740.14 | +$62.95 | 51% 6132-5801 (11933) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $594.02 | $499.62 | -$94.4 | 59% 36902-26123 (63025) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.8¢ | $294.15 | — | -$294.15 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60¢ | $299.87 | $499.62 | +$199.75 | |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 64.1¢ | $448.76 | $518.83 | +$70.07 | 55% 42897-35362 (78259) |
 AtomforgeARB<$100 | Downavg 51.7¢ | $365.28 | $411.1 | +$45.82 | 65% 3701-1998 (5699) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.5¢ | $152.75 | — | -$152.75 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.7¢ | $212.53 | $411.1 | +$198.57 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97.6¢ | $407.35 | $417.26 | +$9.91 | 93% 21764-1691 (23455) |
BI bisonarcticCTR | Upavg 30.2¢ | $150 | — | -$150 | 52% 14-13 (27) |
 OhioRiskManagementARB<$100 | Downavg 59.3¢ | $117.67 | $104.44 | -$13.23 | 49% 76371-79329 (155700) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.6¢ | $55.71 | — | -$55.71 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59.3¢ | $61.96 | $104.44 | +$42.48 | |
 pspspsps5ARB<$100 | Downavg 60.2¢ | $110.47 | $119.79 | +$9.32 | 46% 37328-43529 (80857) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 29.4¢ | $38.4 | — | -$38.4 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.2¢ | $72.06 | $119.79 | +$47.72 | |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100 | Downavg 52.8¢ | $97.81 | $114.02 | +$16.21 | 53% 1932-1746 (3678) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.8¢ | $60.15 | $114.02 | +$53.87 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 38.9¢ | $37.66 | — | -$37.66 | |
 UpandDownSyndrome | Downavg 74.9¢ | $96.73 | $129.1 | +$32.37 | 63% 49651-29409 (79060) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Downavg 55.9¢ | $94.37 | $126.03 | +$31.66 | 55% 48631-39531 (88162) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.9¢ | $70.4 | $126.03 | +$55.63 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41¢ | $23.96 | — | -$23.96 | |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR | Upavg 44¢ | $191.79 | — | -$85.27 | 49% 21579-22285 (43864) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 52.2¢ | $71 | — | -$71 | 55% 16550-13280 (29830) |
AA aaa221ARB<$100 | Upavg 46.2¢ | $103.93 | $50.01 | -$5.12 | 65% 20047-10914 (30961) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.2¢ | $27.14 | — | -$26.77 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.3¢ | $26.65 | $50.01 | +$21.65 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 57¢ | $16.68 | — | -$14.63 | 65% 119380-63148 (182528) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $19.71 | $20 | +$0.29 | 66% 109300-55693 (164993) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $5.46 | $23.73 | +$18.27 | 58% 59354-43324 (102678) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $18.89 | $25.18 | +$6.29 | 67% 22388-11204 (33592) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 51.2¢ | $12.84 | $20 | +$7.16 | 66% 97209-49787 (146996) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 46.6¢ | $7.14 | $15.32 | +$8.18 | 52% 87624-81970 (169594) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19388-18619 (38007) |
Invested
$1,471.54
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$328.04
Record
52%
267-242 (509)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,215.78
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$788.4
Record
54%
38-32 (70)
Both legs:
Invested
$677.2
Value
$740.14
PnL
+$62.95
Record
51%
6132-5801 (11933)
Invested
$594.02
Value
$499.62
PnL
-$94.4
Record
59%
36902-26123 (63025)
Both legs:
MayorMamdaniInvested
$448.76
Value
$518.83
PnL
+$70.07
Record
55%
42897-35362 (78259)
AtomforgeARB<$100Invested
$365.28
Value
$411.1
PnL
+$45.82
Record
65%
3701-1998 (5699)
Both legs:
Invested
$407.35
Value
$417.26
PnL
+$9.91
Record
93%
21764-1691 (23455)
Invested
$150
Value
—
PnL
-$150
Record
52%
14-13 (27)
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100Invested
$117.67
Value
$104.44
PnL
-$13.23
Record
49%
76371-79329 (155700)
Both legs:
pspspsps5ARB<$100Invested
$110.47
Value
$119.79
PnL
+$9.32
Record
46%
37328-43529 (80857)
Both legs:
Invested
$97.81
Value
$114.02
PnL
+$16.21
Record
53%
1932-1746 (3678)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndromeInvested
$96.73
Value
$129.1
PnL
+$32.37
Record
63%
49651-29409 (79060)
Invested
$94.37
Value
$126.03
PnL
+$31.66
Record
55%
48631-39531 (88162)
Both legs:
Invested
$191.79
Value
—
PnL
-$85.27
Record
49%
21579-22285 (43864)
Invested
$71
Value
—
PnL
-$71
Record
55%
16550-13280 (29830)
Invested
$103.93
Value
$50.01
PnL
-$5.12
Record
65%
20047-10914 (30961)
Both legs:
Invested
$16.68
Value
—
PnL
-$14.63
Record
65%
119380-63148 (182528)
Invested
$19.71
Value
$20
PnL
+$0.29
Record
66%
109300-55693 (164993)
Invested
$5.46
Value
$23.73
PnL
+$18.27
Record
58%
59354-43324 (102678)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$18.89
Value
$25.18
PnL
+$6.29
Record
67%
22388-11204 (33592)
Invested
$12.84
Value
$20
PnL
+$7.16
Record
66%
97209-49787 (146996)
Invested
$7.14
Value
$15.32
PnL
+$8.18
Record
52%
87624-81970 (169594)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19388-18619 (38007)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
oxe78sh4w98
ARBArbitrage — excluded
royalanchor02
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Down — $740.14
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
ARBArbitrage — excluded
MayorMamdani
Down — $518.83
Atomforge
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $417.26
bisonarctic
CTRUp — $0
OhioRiskManagement
ARBArbitrage — excluded
pspspsps5
ARBArbitrage — excluded