Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
9
Up 38%
$152.51
-$262.75
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2CTR | Upavg 57.5¢ | $264.15 | — | -$264.15 | 51% 6132-5801 (11933) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 70.5¢ | $33.47 | — | -$33.47 | 65% 20047-10914 (30961) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Upavg 64.7¢ | $31.69 | — | -$31.69 | 54% 9847-8359 (18206) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 | 66% 97209-49787 (146996) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 17¢ | $3.4 | $20 | +$16.6 | 49% 76371-79329 (155700) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $52.18 | $60 | +$7.82 | 55% 42897-35362 (78259) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 31.2¢ | $12.35 | $39.56 | +$27.21 | 55% 16550-13280 (29830) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 35¢ | $8.03 | $22.95 | +$14.92 | 74% 100260-35744 (136004) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19388-18619 (38007) |
Invested
$264.15
Value
—
PnL
-$264.15
Record
51%
6132-5801 (11933)
Invested
$33.47
Value
—
PnL
-$33.47
Record
65%
20047-10914 (30961)
Invested
$31.69
Value
—
PnL
-$31.69
Record
54%
9847-8359 (18206)
Invested
$10
Value
$10
PnL
+$0
Record
66%
97209-49787 (146996)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$3.4
Value
$20
PnL
+$16.6
Record
49%
76371-79329 (155700)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$52.18
Value
$60
PnL
+$7.82
Record
55%
42897-35362 (78259)
Invested
$12.35
Value
$39.56
PnL
+$27.21
Record
55%
16550-13280 (29830)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$8.03
Value
$22.95
PnL
+$14.92
Record
74%
100260-35744 (136004)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19388-18619 (38007)
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