Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
10
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
$366.22
-$130.39
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 33.3¢ | $250.75 | $241.52 | -$9.23 | 51% 6132-5801 (11933) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33.3¢ | $127.56 | — | -$127.56 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51¢ | $123.18 | $241.52 | +$118.34 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 60.7¢ | $64.55 | — | -$64.55 | 55% 16550-13280 (29830) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 70.6¢ | $61.28 | — | -$55.32 | 65% 20047-10914 (30961) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Upavg 63.8¢ | $26.17 | $35.82 | +$9.65 | 54% 9847-8359 (18206) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 45.4¢ | $23.29 | — | -$23.29 | 66% 109300-55693 (164993) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $31.39 | $25.8 | -$5.59 | 74% 100260-35744 (136004) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $12.04 | $25.08 | +$13.04 | 64% 39294-22405 (61699) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $14.63 | — | -$14.63 | 55% 42897-35362 (78259) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $11.2 | $20 | +$8.8 | 66% 97209-49787 (146996) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 38¢ | $6.84 | $18 | +$11.16 | 58% 11888-8697 (20585) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $9.66 | — | -$9.66 | 49% 76371-79329 (155700) |
Invested
$250.75
Value
$241.52
PnL
-$9.23
Record
51%
6132-5801 (11933)
Both legs:
Invested
$64.55
Value
—
PnL
-$64.55
Record
55%
16550-13280 (29830)
Invested
$61.28
Value
—
PnL
-$55.32
Record
65%
20047-10914 (30961)
Invested
$26.17
Value
$35.82
PnL
+$9.65
Record
54%
9847-8359 (18206)
Invested
$23.29
Value
—
PnL
-$23.29
Record
66%
109300-55693 (164993)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$31.39
Value
$25.8
PnL
-$5.59
Record
74%
100260-35744 (136004)
ohioism<$100Invested
$12.04
Value
$25.08
PnL
+$13.04
Record
64%
39294-22405 (61699)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$14.63
Value
—
PnL
-$14.63
Record
55%
42897-35362 (78259)
Invested
$11.2
Value
$20
PnL
+$8.8
Record
66%
97209-49787 (146996)
Invested
$6.84
Value
$18
PnL
+$11.16
Record
58%
11888-8697 (20585)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$9.66
Value
—
PnL
-$9.66
Record
49%
76371-79329 (155700)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRDown — $0
aaa221
CTRDown — $0
thesidehustle
Up — $35.82
antsaslyku
CTRDown — $0
BoneOhio
Up — $25.8
ohioism
Up — $25.08
MayorMamdani
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
Up — $20
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up — $18