Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET
Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
11
Up 55%
1 arb excluded
$380.32
-$42.67
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 60.2¢ | $255.18 | $227.81 | -$27.38 | 51% 6132-5801 (11933) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.2¢ | $137.22 | $227.81 | +$90.58 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.1¢ | $117.96 | — | -$117.96 | |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Upavg 55.7¢ | $31.53 | — | -$31.53 | 54% 9847-8359 (18206) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 40.4¢ | $26.66 | $66 | +$39.34 | 59% 36902-26123 (63025) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Upavg 59.5¢ | $34.9 | — | -$34.9 | 66% 97209-49787 (146996) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $33.9 | $20 | -$13.9 | 65% 20047-10914 (30961) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 52.1¢ | $25.85 | $49.61 | +$23.76 | 55% 16550-13280 (29830) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 57¢ | $7.2 | — | -$7.2 | 49% 76371-79329 (155700) |
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100 | Upavg 60¢ | $9.6 | — | -$9.6 | 12% 17680-128923 (146603) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 74¢ | $10.36 | — | -$10.36 | 65% 119380-63148 (182528) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $7.63 | $8.67 | +$1.04 | 63% 49651-29409 (79060) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $6.5 | $8.23 | +$1.73 | 58% 59354-43324 (102678) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 15¢ | $1.05 | — | -$1.05 | 52% 87624-81970 (169594) |
Invested
$255.18
Value
$227.81
PnL
-$27.38
Record
51%
6132-5801 (11933)
Both legs:
Invested
$31.53
Value
—
PnL
-$31.53
Record
54%
9847-8359 (18206)
Invested
$26.66
Value
$66
PnL
+$39.34
Record
59%
36902-26123 (63025)
Invested
$34.9
Value
—
PnL
-$34.9
Record
66%
97209-49787 (146996)
Invested
$33.9
Value
$20
PnL
-$13.9
Record
65%
20047-10914 (30961)
Invested
$25.85
Value
$49.61
PnL
+$23.76
Record
55%
16550-13280 (29830)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$7.2
Value
—
PnL
-$7.2
Record
49%
76371-79329 (155700)
Invested
$9.6
Value
—
PnL
-$9.6
Record
12%
17680-128923 (146603)
Invested
$10.36
Value
—
PnL
-$10.36
Record
65%
119380-63148 (182528)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$7.63
Value
$8.67
PnL
+$1.04
Record
63%
49651-29409 (79060)
Invested
$6.5
Value
$8.23
PnL
+$1.73
Record
58%
59354-43324 (102678)
Invested
$1.05
Value
—
PnL
-$1.05
Record
52%
87624-81970 (169594)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
thesidehustle
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $66
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
Down — $20
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $49.61
OhioRiskManagement
CTRUp — $0
Hsilverbasher
CTRUp — $0
drfc4eybh7i8
CTRUp — $0
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $8.67