Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
6
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
$245.71
$10.6
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 72.3¢ | $175.67 | $148.05 | -$27.62 | 51% 6112-5777 (11889) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 27.6¢ | $68.68 | — | -$68.68 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72.3¢ | $106.99 | $148.05 | +$41.05 | |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $76.88 | $77.66 | +$0.78 | 49% 74849-77671 (152520) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 43.5¢ | $9.84 | $20 | +$10.16 | 54% 9847-8359 (18206) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $6.8 | — | -$6.8 | 55% 16513-13257 (29770) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $0.43 | — | -$0.43 | 55% 41545-33964 (75509) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19245-18476 (37721) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $22.8 | — | +$6.9 | 65% 19990-10879 (30869) |
Invested
$175.67
Value
$148.05
PnL
-$27.62
Record
51%
6112-5777 (11889)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$76.88
Value
$77.66
PnL
+$0.78
Record
49%
74849-77671 (152520)
Invested
$9.84
Value
$20
PnL
+$10.16
Record
54%
9847-8359 (18206)
Invested
$6.8
Value
—
PnL
-$6.8
Record
55%
16513-13257 (29770)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.43
Value
—
PnL
-$0.43
Record
55%
41545-33964 (75509)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19245-18476 (37721)
Invested
$22.8
Value
—
PnL
+$6.9
Record
65%
19990-10879 (30869)
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