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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Down 56%

Total Value

$152.19

Combined PnL

-$17.6

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders
Total Value$152.19
Total Shares152
Combined PnL+$2.14
Down5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares317
Combined PnL-$19.74
Up — 50%Down — 50%
PL
ply-pm2<$100
Up

Invested

$86.1

Value

$80

PnL

-$6.1

Record

51%

6112-5777 (11889)

AA
aaa221<$100
Up

Invested

$50.78

Value

$52.19

PnL

+$7.95

Record

65%

19990-10879 (30869)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$5.67

Value

—

PnL

-$5.67

Record

59%

36785-26074 (62859)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$7.27

Value

—

PnL

-$7.27

Record

55%

41545-33964 (75509)

TH
thesidehustle<$100
Up

Invested

$11.5

Value

$10

PnL

-$1.5

Record

54%

9847-8359 (18206)

KA
Kathod-Shi-14<$100
Up

Invested

$8.2

Value

$10

PnL

+$1.8

Record

55%

16513-13257 (29770)

pspspsps5CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$2.71

Value

—

PnL

-$2.71

Record

59%

16265-11214 (27479)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$3.18

Value

—

PnL

-$3.18

Record

49%

74849-77671 (152520)

0X
0x50f7CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$0.92

Value

—

PnL

-$0.92

Record

84%

54665-10122 (64787)

DE
devonpoll<$100
Up

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

19245-18476 (37721)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x723f831c...c59b96
Slug
eth-updown-5m-1793041800

Traders in this Market

PL

ply-pm2

Up — $80

-$6.1
AA

aaa221

Up — $52.19

+$7.95
0X

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Down — $0

-$5.67

MayorMamdani

CTR

Down — $0

-$7.27
TH

thesidehustle

Up — $10

-$1.5
KA

Kathod-Shi-14

Up — $10

+$1.8

pspspsps5

CTR

Down — $0

-$2.71

OhioRiskManagement

CTR

Down — $0

-$3.18
0X

0x50f7

CTR

Down — $0

-$0.92
DE

devonpoll

Up — $0

+$0
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