Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
8
Down 86%
2 arb excluded
$1.4K
$52.35
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.7¢ | $847.16 | $858.06 | +$10.9 | 93% 21574-1680 (23254) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 49.4¢ | $110.42 | $132.66 | +$22.24 | 57% 64885-49078 (113963) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.4¢ | $65.47 | $132.66 | +$67.19 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.2¢ | $44.95 | — | -$44.95 | |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 57.1¢ | $86.03 | $116.75 | +$30.72 | 51% 6044-5707 (11751) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.1¢ | $66.72 | $116.75 | +$50.03 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 17.5¢ | $19.31 | — | -$19.31 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $109.89 | $111 | +$1.11 | 59% 36681-25997 (62678) |
PB PBot-6 | Downavg 45¢ | $45.12 | $100.17 | +$55.06 | 58% 49202-35356 (84558) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 78.5¢ | $36.07 | $32.98 | -$3.09 | 65% 19843-10779 (30622) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $19.8 | — | -$19.8 | 54% 9773-8307 (18080) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 71.7¢ | $14.75 | $20.57 | +$5.82 | 56% 16429-13163 (29592) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $5 | +$2.35 | 76% 70632-22093 (92725) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 52% 17120-15945 (33065) |
Invested
$847.16
Value
$858.06
PnL
+$10.9
Record
93%
21574-1680 (23254)
Invested
$110.42
Value
$132.66
PnL
+$22.24
Record
57%
64885-49078 (113963)
Both legs:
Invested
$86.03
Value
$116.75
PnL
+$30.72
Record
51%
6044-5707 (11751)
Both legs:
Invested
$109.89
Value
$111
PnL
+$1.11
Record
59%
36681-25997 (62678)
Invested
$45.12
Value
$100.17
PnL
+$55.06
Record
58%
49202-35356 (84558)
Invested
$36.07
Value
$32.98
PnL
-$3.09
Record
65%
19843-10779 (30622)
Invested
$19.8
Value
—
PnL
-$19.8
Record
54%
9773-8307 (18080)
Invested
$14.75
Value
$20.57
PnL
+$5.82
Record
56%
16429-13163 (29592)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.35
Record
76%
70632-22093 (92725)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
17120-15945 (33065)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $858.06
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $111
PBot-6
Down — $100.17
aaa221
Down — $32.98
thesidehustle
CTRUp — $0
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $20.57
Bonereaper
Down — $5
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0