Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
11
Down 70%
1 arb excluded
$388.64
$84.56
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 71.7¢ | $202.71 | $122 | -$80.71 | 52% 5939-5562 (11501) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 71.7¢ | $143 | — | -$143 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.9¢ | $59.71 | $122 | +$62.29 | |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 83.5¢ | $25.38 | — | -$25.38 | 67% 14190-7009 (21199) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 89.9¢ | $46.76 | $40.28 | -$6.48 | 62% 14221-8902 (23123) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $11.31 | — | -$11.31 | 58% 16454-12070 (28524) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $12.54 | $36.87 | +$24.33 | 58% 55142-40208 (95350) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Upavg 65.5¢ | $20.65 | — | -$20.65 | 54% 9622-8161 (17783) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 85.1¢ | $28.8 | $24.22 | -$4.58 | 79% 29830-7781 (37611) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 12.5¢ | $13.68 | $109.25 | +$95.57 | 50% 68021-68968 (136989) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $9.85 | $10.71 | +$0.86 | 62% 44360-26695 (71055) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 32¢ | $12.8 | $40 | +$27.2 | 56% 34391-26783 (61174) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 6¢ | $0.32 | $5.32 | +$5 | 59% 16037-10985 (27022) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 52% 16869-15701 (32570) |
Invested
$202.71
Value
$122
PnL
-$80.71
Record
52%
5939-5562 (11501)
Both legs:
Invested
$25.38
Value
—
PnL
-$25.38
Record
67%
14190-7009 (21199)
Invested
$46.76
Value
$40.28
PnL
-$6.48
Record
62%
14221-8902 (23123)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$11.31
Value
—
PnL
-$11.31
Record
58%
16454-12070 (28524)
Invested
$12.54
Value
$36.87
PnL
+$24.33
Record
58%
55142-40208 (95350)
Invested
$20.65
Value
—
PnL
-$20.65
Record
54%
9622-8161 (17783)
Invested
$28.8
Value
$24.22
PnL
-$4.58
Record
79%
29830-7781 (37611)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$13.68
Value
$109.25
PnL
+$95.57
Record
50%
68021-68968 (136989)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$9.85
Value
$10.71
PnL
+$0.86
Record
62%
44360-26695 (71055)
Invested
$12.8
Value
$40
PnL
+$27.2
Record
56%
34391-26783 (61174)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$0.32
Value
$5.32
PnL
+$5
Record
59%
16037-10985 (27022)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
16869-15701 (32570)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
asidjasiodja
Down — $40.28
MayorMamdani
CTRUp — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $36.87
thesidehustle
CTRUp — $0
asdaefef
Down — $24.22
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $109.25
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $10.71
uninformedfloww
Down — $40