Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Up 64%
1 arb excluded
$559.14
-$11.64
Smart Money Signal
9 of 15 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.2¢ | $334.74 | $340.96 | +$6.22 | 93% 20886-1673 (22559) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 48.6¢ | $52.79 | $60.9 | +$8.1 | 52% 5939-5562 (11501) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.6¢ | $29.58 | $60.9 | +$31.32 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 17.8¢ | $23.22 | — | -$23.22 | |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 10¢ | $31.63 | — | -$31.63 | 50% 68021-68968 (136989) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 82.3¢ | $36.71 | $42.8 | +$6.09 | 58% 16454-12070 (28524) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 87.5¢ | $36 | $37.52 | +$1.52 | 62% 14221-8902 (23123) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $13.47 | — | -$13.47 | 64% 19321-10933 (30254) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $14.4 | $30 | +$15.6 | 56% 34391-26783 (61174) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $13.39 | — | -$13.39 | 54% 9622-8161 (17783) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $11.2 | $20 | +$8.8 | 52% 16869-15701 (32570) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 81.2¢ | $9.31 | $11.47 | +$2.16 | 79% 29830-7781 (37611) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 59.1¢ | $7.39 | $12.51 | +$5.12 | 67% 14190-7009 (21199) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 25.5¢ | $2.55 | — | -$2.55 | 58% 35008-25112 (60120) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 59.8¢ | $13 | $1.75 | +$5.15 | 66% 98923-50543 (149466) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $1.23 | $1.23 | +$0 | 83% 39878-8374 (48252) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 17¢ | $1.26 | — | -$1.26 | 53% 70410-63019 (133429) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $0 | — | -$0.01 | 59% 16037-10985 (27022) |
Invested
$334.74
Value
$340.96
PnL
+$6.22
Record
93%
20886-1673 (22559)
Invested
$52.79
Value
$60.9
PnL
+$8.1
Record
52%
5939-5562 (11501)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$31.63
Value
—
PnL
-$31.63
Record
50%
68021-68968 (136989)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$36.71
Value
$42.8
PnL
+$6.09
Record
58%
16454-12070 (28524)
Invested
$36
Value
$37.52
PnL
+$1.52
Record
62%
14221-8902 (23123)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$13.47
Value
—
PnL
-$13.47
Record
64%
19321-10933 (30254)
Invested
$14.4
Value
$30
PnL
+$15.6
Record
56%
34391-26783 (61174)
Invested
$13.39
Value
—
PnL
-$13.39
Record
54%
9622-8161 (17783)
Invested
$11.2
Value
$20
PnL
+$8.8
Record
52%
16869-15701 (32570)
Invested
$9.31
Value
$11.47
PnL
+$2.16
Record
79%
29830-7781 (37611)
Invested
$7.39
Value
$12.51
PnL
+$5.12
Record
67%
14190-7009 (21199)
Invested
$2.55
Value
—
PnL
-$2.55
Record
58%
35008-25112 (60120)
Invested
$13
Value
$1.75
PnL
+$5.15
Record
66%
98923-50543 (149466)
Invested
$1.23
Value
$1.23
PnL
+$0
Record
83%
39878-8374 (48252)
Invested
$1.26
Value
—
PnL
-$1.26
Record
53%
70410-63019 (133429)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0
Value
—
PnL
-$0.01
Record
59%
16037-10985 (27022)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $340.96
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
OhioRiskManagement
CTRDown — $0
MayorMamdani
Up — $42.8
asidjasiodja
Up — $37.52
G-Penis-Monster
CTRDown — $0
uninformedfloww
Up — $30
thesidehustle
CTRDown — $0
devonpoll
Up — $20
asdaefef
Up — $11.47