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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET

Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Down 60%

Total Value

$186.72

Combined PnL

-$120.96

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 15 top traders (60%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares467
Combined PnL-$125
Up6 traders
Total Value$186.72
Total Shares187
Combined PnL+$4.04
Down — 60%Up — 40%
PL
ply-pm2CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$62.87

Value

—

PnL

-$62.87

Record

52%

5939-5562 (11501)

AA
aaa221<$100
Up

Invested

$45.85

Value

$53.11

PnL

+$7.26

Record

67%

14190-7009 (21199)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100
Up

Invested

$66.13

Value

$50.08

PnL

-$16.05

Record

58%

55142-40208 (95350)

AS
asidjasiodja<$100
Up

Invested

$44.45

Value

$43.07

PnL

-$1.38

Record

62%

14221-8902 (23123)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$27.94

Value

—

PnL

-$27.94

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

DE
devonpoll<$100
Up

Invested

$14

Value

$20

PnL

+$6

Record

52%

16869-15701 (32570)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Up

Invested

$8.35

Value

$10.46

PnL

+$2.11

Record

79%

29830-7781 (37611)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$5.1

Value

—

PnL

-$5.1

Record

66%

98923-50543 (149466)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$12.9

Value

—

PnL

-$12.9

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

ohioismCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$5.2

Value

—

PnL

-$5.2

Record

64%

37926-21432 (59358)

DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$6.32

Value

—

PnL

-$6.32

Record

53%

70410-63019 (133429)

UN
uninformedfloww<$100
Up

Invested

$3.9

Value

$10

PnL

+$6.1

Record

56%

34391-26783 (61174)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$3.01

Value

—

PnL

-$3.01

Record

58%

11584-8476 (20060)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$1.19

Value

—

PnL

-$1.19

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

0X
0x50f7CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$0.46

Value

—

PnL

-$0.46

Record

83%

39878-8374 (48252)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0xa047a452...78eacf
Slug
eth-updown-5m-1793003700

Traders in this Market

PL

ply-pm2

CTR

Down — $0

-$62.87
AA

aaa221

Up — $53.11

+$7.26
0X

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $50.08

-$16.05
AS

asidjasiodja

Up — $43.07

-$1.38
0X

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Down — $0

-$27.94
DE

devonpoll

Up — $20

+$6
AS

asdaefef

Up — $10.46

+$2.11
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

CTR

Down — $0

-$5.1

OhioRiskManagement

CTR

Down — $0

-$12.9

ohioism

CTR

Down — $0

-$5.2
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