Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Up (71%) · Up at 100¢ · $742 held · ended Oct 26

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$742.43

Combined PnL

$29.81

Smart Money Entry

74.7¢ → 100¢

+34% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 17 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$369.76

Total Shares386

Combined PnL+$35.65

Down5 traders

Total Value$130.97

Total Shares297

Combined PnL-$5.84

Up — 71%Down — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 64.7¢	$201.46	$172.65	-$28.81	90% 64816-7021 (71837)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.7¢	$111.98	$127.3	+$15.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.3¢	$89.49	$45.35	-$44.14
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 77.9¢	$101.75	$97.24	-$4.51	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 31.9¢	$99.53	$94.93	-$4.59	52% 5939-5562 (11501)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 57.6¢	$49.75	$77.43	+$27.68	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 46.1¢	$37.6	$69.05	+$31.46	56% 34391-26783 (61174)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.1¢	$25.85	$45.17	+$19.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 9.6¢	$11.74	$23.88	+$12.14
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 66.7¢	$37.22	$45.15	+$7.93	67% 14190-7009 (21199)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$40.59	$40.8	+$0.2	93% 20886-1673 (22559)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 91.9¢	$35.06	$33.92	-$1.14	79% 29830-7781 (37611)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Downavg 53.9¢	$22.94	$21.93	-$1	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 84.7¢	$20.92	$21.21	+$0.29	62% 14221-8902 (23123)
TH thesidehustle<$100	Upavg 68¢	$20.48	$20.17	-$0.32	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 54¢	$7.14	$12.36	+$5.22	58% 16454-12070 (28524)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Downavg 51¢	$9.8	$9.51	-$0.29	58% 11711-8321 (20032)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 78.2¢	$6.85	$7.05	+$0.21	58% 11584-8476 (20060)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 93¢	$6.51	$6.61	+$0.1	59% 16037-10985 (27022)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 49¢	$4.14	$6.5	+$2.36	53% 70410-63019 (133429)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 16.4¢	$2.94	$3.49	+$0.55	62% 44360-26695 (71055)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 74¢	$3.7	$1.33	-$2.38	64% 19321-10933 (30254)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 8¢	$1.6	$1.1	-$0.5	66% 98923-50543 (149466)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$201.46

Value

$172.65

PnL

-$28.81

Record

90%

64816-7021 (71837)

Both legs:

Down$111.9864.7¢+$15.32

Up$89.4952.3¢-$44.14

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$101.75

Value

$97.24

PnL

-$4.51

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$99.53

Value

$94.93

PnL

-$4.59

Record

52%

5939-5562 (11501)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$49.75

Value

$77.43

PnL

+$27.68

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$37.6

Value

$69.05

PnL

+$31.46

Record

56%

34391-26783 (61174)

Both legs:

Up$25.8546.1¢+$19.32

Down$11.749.6¢+$12.14

aaa221<$100

Invested

$37.22

Value

$45.15

PnL

+$7.93

Record

67%

14190-7009 (21199)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$40.59

Value

$40.8

PnL

+$0.2

Record

93%

20886-1673 (22559)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$35.06

Value

$33.92

PnL

-$1.14

Record

79%

29830-7781 (37611)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22.94

Value

$21.93

PnL

-$1

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$20.92

Value

$21.21

PnL

+$0.29

Record

62%

14221-8902 (23123)

thesidehustle<$100

Invested

$20.48

Value

$20.17

PnL

-$0.32

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$7.14

Value

$12.36

PnL

+$5.22

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.51

PnL

-$0.29

Record

58%

11711-8321 (20032)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$6.85

Value

$7.05

PnL

+$0.21

Record

58%

11584-8476 (20060)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$6.51

Value

$6.61

PnL

+$0.1

Record

59%

16037-10985 (27022)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$4.14

Value

$6.5

PnL

+$2.36

Record

53%

70410-63019 (133429)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.94

Value

$3.49

PnL

+$0.55

Record

62%

44360-26695 (71055)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$3.7

Value

$1.33

PnL

-$2.38

Record

64%

19321-10933 (30254)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$0.5

Record

66%

98923-50543 (149466)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 17 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.