Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Up (54%) · Up at 100¢ · $731 held · ended Oct 26

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 54%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$730.66

Combined PnL

-$3.91

Smart Money Entry

93.7¢ → 100¢

+7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$441.82

Total Shares472

Combined PnL-$4.22

Down6 traders

Total Value$73.92

Total Shares431

Combined PnL+$0.31

Up — 54%Down — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$391.01	$392.99	+$1.97	93% 20886-1673 (22559)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 54.5¢	$150.77	$143.32	-$7.45	90% 64816-7021 (71837)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.5¢	$78.49	$97.29	+$18.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 51¢	$72.28	$46.04	-$26.24
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Downavg 37.3¢	$52.76	$71.6	+$18.84	52% 5939-5562 (11501)
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.4¢	$16.06	$39.63	+$23.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.3¢	$36.7	$31.97	-$4.73
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 4.3¢	$23.28	$21.79	-$1.49	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 83.8¢	$22.39	$18.2	-$4.19	62% 14221-8902 (23123)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 10.2¢	$3.47	$11.12	+$7.65	58% 16454-12070 (28524)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 65.4¢	$16.54	$10.91	-$2.78	67% 14190-7009 (21199)
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100	Downavg 62¢	$12.4	$10.8	-$1.6	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$10.5	$10.4	-$0.11	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 43.1¢	$8.8	$9.39	+$0.59	52% 16869-15701 (32570)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 47.4¢	$10.26	$8.9	-$1.36	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 99¢	$9.9	$6.75	-$3.15	79% 29830-7781 (37611)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 47¢	$5.64	$6.06	+$0.42	14% 16230-96920 (113150)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 42¢	$3.95	$5.05	+$1.1	53% 70410-63019 (133429)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 87¢	$4.35	$3.38	-$0.97	66% 98923-50543 (149466)

hoodquant

Invested

$391.01

Value

$392.99

PnL

+$1.97

Record

93%

20886-1673 (22559)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$150.77

Value

$143.32

PnL

-$7.45

Record

90%

64816-7021 (71837)

Both legs:

Invested

$52.76

Value

$71.6

PnL

+$18.84

Record

52%

5939-5562 (11501)

Both legs:

Up$16.0627.4¢+$23.57

Down$36.737.3¢-$4.73

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$23.28

Value

$21.79

PnL

-$1.49

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$22.39

Value

$18.2

PnL

-$4.19

Record

62%

14221-8902 (23123)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.47

Value

$11.12

PnL

+$7.65

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.54

Value

$10.91

PnL

-$2.78

Record

67%

14190-7009 (21199)

thesidehustleCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12.4

Value

$10.8

PnL

-$1.6

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.5

Value

$10.4

PnL

-$0.11

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$8.8

Value

$9.39

PnL

+$0.59

Record

52%

16869-15701 (32570)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.26

Value

$8.9

PnL

-$1.36

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$9.9

Value

$6.75

PnL

-$3.15

Record

79%

29830-7781 (37611)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$5.64

Value

$6.06

PnL

+$0.42

Record

14%

16230-96920 (113150)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$3.95

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$1.1

Record

53%

70410-63019 (133429)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$4.35

Value

$3.38

PnL

-$0.97

Record

66%

98923-50543 (149466)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.