Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (60%) · Up at 100¢ · $341 held · ended Oct 26

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 60%

Total Value

$341.2

Combined PnL

-$4.46

Smart Money Entry

96.1¢ → 100¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$302

Total Shares319

Combined PnL-$8.03

Down4 traders

Total Value$39.2

Total Shares496

Combined PnL+$3.57

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$225.72	$226.86	+$1.14	93% 20886-1673 (22559)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 28.5¢	$17.19	$29.85	+$12.65	52% 5939-5562 (11501)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 92.1¢	$31.02	$26.11	-$4.91	62% 14221-8902 (23123)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 82.5¢	$22.79	$25.25	+$2.46	90% 64816-7021 (71837)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 96.5¢	$11.64	$9.47	-$2.17	79% 29830-7781 (37611)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 97.6¢	$10.65	$8.56	-$2.08	53% 70410-63019 (133429)
TH thesidehustle<$100	Upavg 78¢	$8.21	$5.75	-$2.46	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 5¢	$1.01	$4.33	+$3.33	59% 16037-10985 (27022)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Downavg 44¢	$2.64	$2.97	+$0.33	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 3.6¢	$14.79	$2.05	-$12.74	50% 68021-68968 (136989)

hoodquant

Invested

$225.72

Value

$226.86

PnL

+$1.14

Record

93%

20886-1673 (22559)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$17.19

Value

$29.85

PnL

+$12.65

Record

52%

5939-5562 (11501)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$31.02

Value

$26.11

PnL

-$4.91

Record

62%

14221-8902 (23123)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$22.79

Value

$25.25

PnL

+$2.46

Record

90%

64816-7021 (71837)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$11.64

Value

$9.47

PnL

-$2.17

Record

79%

29830-7781 (37611)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$10.65

Value

$8.56

PnL

-$2.08

Record

53%

70410-63019 (133429)

thesidehustle<$100

Invested

$8.21

Value

$5.75

PnL

-$2.46

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.01

Value

$4.33

PnL

+$3.33

Record

59%

16037-10985 (27022)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.64

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.33

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.79

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$12.74

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.