Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Down 79%
1 arb excluded
$567.17
-$42.61
Smart Money Signal
11 of 15 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97.8¢ | $296.07 | $302.62 | +$6.55 | 93% 20886-1673 (22559) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Upavg 38.7¢ | $49.86 | — | -$49.86 | 58% 11711-8321 (20032) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $38.94 | $64 | +$25.06 | 58% 35008-25112 (60120) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44¢ | $28.16 | $64 | +$35.84 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 18¢ | $10.78 | — | -$10.78 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 69.4¢ | $48.83 | $60.89 | +$12.06 | 90% 64816-7021 (71837) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 23.3¢ | $29.36 | — | -$29.36 | 52% 5939-5562 (11501) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $27.72 | $24.83 | -$2.89 | 50% 68021-68968 (136989) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 90.5¢ | $63.32 | $20.16 | -$2.25 | 67% 14190-7009 (21199) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $19.61 | $25.47 | +$5.86 | 62% 14221-8902 (23123) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $12.75 | $15 | +$2.25 | 58% 16454-12070 (28524) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 82.1¢ | $9.97 | $12.14 | +$2.17 | 79% 29830-7781 (37611) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 80.4¢ | $9.72 | $12.09 | +$2.37 | 53% 70410-63019 (133429) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $6.16 | $14 | +$7.84 | 74% 61575-21102 (82677) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 60.2¢ | $7.67 | $12.74 | +$5.07 | 56% 34391-26783 (61174) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 78.5¢ | $4.74 | $3.23 | -$1.51 | 54% 9622-8161 (17783) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 15¢ | $0.91 | — | -$0.91 | 66% 98923-50543 (149466) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 52% 16869-15701 (32570) |
Invested
$296.07
Value
$302.62
PnL
+$6.55
Record
93%
20886-1673 (22559)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$49.86
Value
—
PnL
-$49.86
Record
58%
11711-8321 (20032)
Invested
$38.94
Value
$64
PnL
+$25.06
Record
58%
35008-25112 (60120)
Both legs:
Invested
$48.83
Value
$60.89
PnL
+$12.06
Record
90%
64816-7021 (71837)
Invested
$29.36
Value
—
PnL
-$29.36
Record
52%
5939-5562 (11501)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$27.72
Value
$24.83
PnL
-$2.89
Record
50%
68021-68968 (136989)
Invested
$63.32
Value
$20.16
PnL
-$2.25
Record
67%
14190-7009 (21199)
Invested
$19.61
Value
$25.47
PnL
+$5.86
Record
62%
14221-8902 (23123)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$12.75
Value
$15
PnL
+$2.25
Record
58%
16454-12070 (28524)
Invested
$9.97
Value
$12.14
PnL
+$2.17
Record
79%
29830-7781 (37611)
Invested
$9.72
Value
$12.09
PnL
+$2.37
Record
53%
70410-63019 (133429)
Invested
$6.16
Value
$14
PnL
+$7.84
Record
74%
61575-21102 (82677)
Invested
$7.67
Value
$12.74
PnL
+$5.07
Record
56%
34391-26783 (61174)
Invested
$4.74
Value
$3.23
PnL
-$1.51
Record
54%
9622-8161 (17783)
Invested
$0.91
Value
—
PnL
-$0.91
Record
66%
98923-50543 (149466)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
16869-15701 (32570)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $302.62
wowitsamazing
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $60.89
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $24.83
aaa221
Down — $20.16
asidjasiodja
Down — $25.47
MayorMamdani
Down — $15
asdaefef
Down — $12.14