Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Down 72%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
$126.84
Smart Money Signal
13 of 19 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 53.5¢ | $247.55 | $290.36 | +$42.81 | 52% 5939-5562 (11501) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 64¢ | $100.22 | $110.64 | +$10.42 | 90% 64816-7021 (71837) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 82.5¢ | $85.47 | $103.6 | +$18.14 | 58% 16454-12070 (28524) |
HS Hsilverbasher | Downavg 46.1¢ | $82.9 | $180 | +$97.1 | 14% 16230-96920 (113150) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $82.27 | $83.1 | +$0.83 | 93% 20886-1673 (22559) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $44.14 | $39.12 | -$5.02 | 58% 35008-25112 (60120) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51¢ | $19.95 | $39.12 | +$19.17 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31¢ | $24.19 | — | -$24.19 | |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Upavg 49.7¢ | $49.4 | — | -$49.4 | 58% 11711-8321 (20032) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 10.3¢ | $38.69 | — | -$38.69 | 50% 68021-68968 (136989) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 48.1¢ | $22.33 | $37.09 | +$14.76 | 56% 34391-26783 (61174) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 45.5¢ | $32.79 | $46 | +$13.21 | 74% 61575-21102 (82677) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 77.1¢ | $23.5 | $30.5 | +$7 | 62% 14221-8902 (23123) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 81.2¢ | $24.16 | $29.76 | +$5.6 | 67% 14190-7009 (21199) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 81.7¢ | $14.03 | $17.17 | +$3.14 | 53% 70410-63019 (133429) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 53.3¢ | $16.34 | $30.64 | +$14.3 | 54% 9622-8161 (17783) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 54¢ | $10.8 | — | -$10.8 | 66% 98923-50543 (149466) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 6.2¢ | $4 | — | -$4 | 59% 16037-10985 (27022) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $6.03 | $9 | +$2.97 | 58% 55142-40208 (95350) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $3.3 | $5 | +$1.7 | 79% 29830-7781 (37611) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $2.26 | — | -$2.26 | 64% 37926-21432 (59358) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 52% 16869-15701 (32570) |
Invested
$247.55
Value
$290.36
PnL
+$42.81
Record
52%
5939-5562 (11501)
Invested
$100.22
Value
$110.64
PnL
+$10.42
Record
90%
64816-7021 (71837)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$85.47
Value
$103.6
PnL
+$18.14
Record
58%
16454-12070 (28524)
Invested
$82.9
Value
$180
PnL
+$97.1
Record
14%
16230-96920 (113150)
Invested
$82.27
Value
$83.1
PnL
+$0.83
Record
93%
20886-1673 (22559)
Invested
$44.14
Value
$39.12
PnL
-$5.02
Record
58%
35008-25112 (60120)
Both legs:
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$49.4
Value
—
PnL
-$49.4
Record
58%
11711-8321 (20032)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$38.69
Value
—
PnL
-$38.69
Record
50%
68021-68968 (136989)
Invested
$22.33
Value
$37.09
PnL
+$14.76
Record
56%
34391-26783 (61174)
Invested
$32.79
Value
$46
PnL
+$13.21
Record
74%
61575-21102 (82677)
Invested
$23.5
Value
$30.5
PnL
+$7
Record
62%
14221-8902 (23123)
Invested
$24.16
Value
$29.76
PnL
+$5.6
Record
67%
14190-7009 (21199)
Invested
$14.03
Value
$17.17
PnL
+$3.14
Record
53%
70410-63019 (133429)
Invested
$16.34
Value
$30.64
PnL
+$14.3
Record
54%
9622-8161 (17783)
Invested
$10.8
Value
—
PnL
-$10.8
Record
66%
98923-50543 (149466)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$4
Value
—
PnL
-$4
Record
59%
16037-10985 (27022)
Invested
$6.03
Value
$9
PnL
+$2.97
Record
58%
55142-40208 (95350)
Invested
$3.3
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.7
Record
79%
29830-7781 (37611)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$2.26
Value
—
PnL
-$2.26
Record
64%
37926-21432 (59358)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
16869-15701 (32570)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
Down — $290.36
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $110.64
MayorMamdani
Down — $103.6
Hsilverbasher
Down — $180
hoodquant
Down — $83.1
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
ARBArbitrage — excluded
wowitsamazing
CTRUp — $0
OhioRiskManagement
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $37.09
Bonereaper
Down — $46