Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET
Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
7
Down 67%
1 arb excluded
$269.42
$20.29
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 35.2¢ | $132.3 | $124.76 | -$7.54 | 52% 5939-5562 (11501) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.2¢ | $80.67 | — | -$80.67 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.4¢ | $51.63 | $124.76 | +$73.13 | |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 58.1¢ | $50.76 | $80.25 | +$29.49 | 50% 68021-68968 (136989) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 56.1¢ | $31.94 | $34.99 | +$3.06 | 74% 61575-21102 (82677) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $8.28 | $9.22 | +$0.94 | 62% 44360-26695 (71055) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 36.8¢ | $9.31 | — | -$9.31 | 62% 14221-8902 (23123) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $19.8 | $20.2 | +$0.4 | 66% 98923-50543 (149466) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $4.29 | — | -$4.29 | 53% 70410-63019 (133429) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 60.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 52% 16869-15701 (32570) |
Invested
$132.3
Value
$124.76
PnL
-$7.54
Record
52%
5939-5562 (11501)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$50.76
Value
$80.25
PnL
+$29.49
Record
50%
68021-68968 (136989)
Invested
$31.94
Value
$34.99
PnL
+$3.06
Record
74%
61575-21102 (82677)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$8.28
Value
$9.22
PnL
+$0.94
Record
62%
44360-26695 (71055)
Invested
$9.31
Value
—
PnL
-$9.31
Record
62%
14221-8902 (23123)
Invested
$19.8
Value
$20.2
PnL
+$0.4
Record
66%
98923-50543 (149466)
Invested
$4.29
Value
—
PnL
-$4.29
Record
53%
70410-63019 (133429)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
16869-15701 (32570)
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