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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET

Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 78%

Total Value

$158.85

Combined PnL

-$129.66

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 9 top traders (78%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares371

Combined PnL-$189.46

Down2 traders

Total Value$158.85

Total Shares159

Combined PnL+$59.8

Up — 78%Down — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 18.8¢	$69.7	—	-$69.7	62% 44360-26695 (71055)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 67¢	$43.35	—	-$43.35	64% 19321-10933 (30254)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 32.8¢	$40.26	$119.43	+$79.18	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 65¢	$32.62	—	-$32.62	58% 55142-40208 (95350)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 72.1¢	$68.16	$39.42	-$19.38	66% 98923-50543 (149466)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 66.1¢	$18.38	—	-$18.38	62% 14221-8902 (23123)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$9.51	—	-$9.51	53% 70410-63019 (133429)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 59¢	$12	—	-$12	52% 16869-15701 (32570)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 78¢	$3.9	—	-$3.9	58% 11584-8476 (20060)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$69.7

Value

—

PnL

-$69.7

Record

62%

44360-26695 (71055)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$43.35

Value

—

PnL

-$43.35

Record

64%

19321-10933 (30254)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$40.26

Value

$119.43

PnL

+$79.18

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$32.62

Value

—

PnL

-$32.62

Record

58%

55142-40208 (95350)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$68.16

Value

$39.42

PnL

-$19.38

Record

66%

98923-50543 (149466)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$18.38

Value

—

PnL

-$18.38

Record

62%

14221-8902 (23123)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$9.51

Value

—

PnL

-$9.51

Record

53%

70410-63019 (133429)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$12

Value

—

PnL

-$12

Record

52%

16869-15701 (32570)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$3.9

Value

—

PnL

-$3.9

Record

58%

11584-8476 (20060)

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 9 top traders (78%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9a45fb74...087246

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1792997400

Traders in this Market

UpandDownSyndrome

Up — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $119.43

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $39.42

asidjasiodja

Up — $0

dvasdkasodk

Up — $0

devonpoll

Up — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $0

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