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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Up 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$289.46

Combined PnL

-$51.07

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$195.29

Total Shares195

Combined PnL+$47.83

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares193

Combined PnL-$98.9

Down — 38%Up — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 60.2¢	$111.38	$94.17	-$17.21	90% 64816-7021 (71837)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.2¢	$59.08	—	-$59.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.5¢	$52.3	$94.17	+$41.88
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 67¢	$72.2	$104.99	+$32.8	56% 34391-26783 (61174)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 44.1¢	$29.37	—	-$29.37	52% 5939-5562 (11501)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 62.2¢	$33.29	—	-$33.29	56% 15511-12385 (27896)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 84¢	$42	$50	+$8	58% 55142-40208 (95350)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 50.1¢	$24.48	$24.59	+$0.11	67% 14190-7009 (21199)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 27¢	$10.16	—	-$10.16	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 40.7¢	$8.4	—	-$8.4	52% 16869-15701 (32570)
TH thesidehustle<$100	Downavg 47.7¢	$5.84	$10.71	+$4.87	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Upavg 54¢	$6.48	—	-$6.48	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 56¢	$5.02	—	-$5.02	53% 70410-63019 (133429)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 52¢	$2.88	—	-$2.88	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 66¢	$3.3	—	-$3.3	58% 16454-12070 (28524)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 59¢	$2.95	$5	+$2.05	66% 98923-50543 (149466)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$111.38

Value

$94.17

PnL

-$17.21

Record

90%

64816-7021 (71837)

Both legs:

Up$59.0860.2¢-$59.08

Down$52.355.5¢+$41.88

uninformedfloww

Invested

$72.2

Value

$104.99

PnL

+$32.8

Record

56%

34391-26783 (61174)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$29.37

Value

—

PnL

-$29.37

Record

52%

5939-5562 (11501)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$33.29

Value

—

PnL

-$33.29

Record

56%

15511-12385 (27896)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$42

Value

$50

PnL

+$8

Record

58%

55142-40208 (95350)

Invested

$24.48

Value

$24.59

PnL

+$0.11

Record

67%

14190-7009 (21199)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$10.16

Value

—

PnL

-$10.16

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$8.4

Value

—

PnL

-$8.4

Record

52%

16869-15701 (32570)

thesidehustle<$100

Invested

$5.84

Value

$10.71

PnL

+$4.87

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Invested

$6.48

Value

—

PnL

-$6.48

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$5.02

Value

—

PnL

-$5.02

Record

53%

70410-63019 (133429)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$2.88

Value

—

PnL

-$2.88

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$3.3

Value

—

PnL

-$3.3

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$2.95

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.05

Record

66%

98923-50543 (149466)

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x5c7af6e8...299272

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1792996800

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Down — $104.99

ply-pm2

Up — $0

Kathod-Shi-14

Up — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $50

aaa221

Down — $24.59

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $0

devonpoll

Up — $0

thesidehustle

Down — $10.71

Bonereaper

Up — $0

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