Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Down 67%
1 arb excluded
$299.3
-$23.32
Smart Money Signal
11 of 17 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $163.68 | $145.45 | -$18.23 | 52% 5939-5562 (11501) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 71¢ | $103.2 | $145.45 | +$42.25 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.7¢ | $60.48 | — | -$60.48 | |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $50.17 | — | -$44.56 | 67% 14190-7009 (21199) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 2.5¢ | $1.76 | — | -$1.76 | 83% 39878-8374 (48252) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 43.9¢ | $28.9 | — | -$28.9 | 56% 15511-12385 (27896) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 74.8¢ | $27.27 | $32.94 | +$5.67 | 54% 9622-8161 (17783) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 40.7¢ | $15.11 | $37.08 | +$21.97 | 50% 68021-68968 (136989) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $13.34 | $13.47 | +$0.13 | 73% 86788-31711 (118499) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $13.92 | $16 | +$2.08 | 58% 16454-12070 (28524) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 17¢ | $5.14 | — | -$5.14 | 56% 34391-26783 (61174) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 35.5¢ | $4.02 | $6.59 | +$2.57 | 53% 70410-63019 (133429) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 29.5¢ | $5.96 | $20.17 | +$14.21 | 58% 35008-25112 (60120) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $3.83 | $6.18 | +$2.35 | 68% 94633-44122 (138755) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 58¢ | $3.18 | $5.48 | +$2.3 | 64% 19321-10933 (30254) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $3.55 | $5 | +$1.45 | 64% 37926-21432 (59358) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 41.7¢ | $4.3 | $10.31 | +$6.01 | 62% 14221-8902 (23123) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 63¢ | $3.15 | — | -$3.15 | 66% 98923-50543 (149466) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 74.2¢ | $4.18 | $0.63 | +$1.45 | 84% 31418-5931 (37349) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 52% 16869-15701 (32570) |
Invested
$163.68
Value
$145.45
PnL
-$18.23
Record
52%
5939-5562 (11501)
Both legs:
Invested
$50.17
Value
—
PnL
-$44.56
Record
67%
14190-7009 (21199)
Invested
$1.76
Value
—
PnL
-$1.76
Record
83%
39878-8374 (48252)
Invested
$28.9
Value
—
PnL
-$28.9
Record
56%
15511-12385 (27896)
Invested
$27.27
Value
$32.94
PnL
+$5.67
Record
54%
9622-8161 (17783)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$15.11
Value
$37.08
PnL
+$21.97
Record
50%
68021-68968 (136989)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$13.34
Value
$13.47
PnL
+$0.13
Record
73%
86788-31711 (118499)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$13.92
Value
$16
PnL
+$2.08
Record
58%
16454-12070 (28524)
Invested
$5.14
Value
—
PnL
-$5.14
Record
56%
34391-26783 (61174)
Invested
$4.02
Value
$6.59
PnL
+$2.57
Record
53%
70410-63019 (133429)
Invested
$5.96
Value
$20.17
PnL
+$14.21
Record
58%
35008-25112 (60120)
Invested
$3.83
Value
$6.18
PnL
+$2.35
Record
68%
94633-44122 (138755)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$3.18
Value
$5.48
PnL
+$2.3
Record
64%
19321-10933 (30254)
ohioism<$100Invested
$3.55
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.45
Record
64%
37926-21432 (59358)
Invested
$4.3
Value
$10.31
PnL
+$6.01
Record
62%
14221-8902 (23123)
Invested
$3.15
Value
—
PnL
-$3.15
Record
66%
98923-50543 (149466)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$4.18
Value
$0.63
PnL
+$1.45
Record
84%
31418-5931 (37349)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
16869-15701 (32570)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
0x50f7
CTRUp — $0
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRUp — $0
thesidehustle
Down — $32.94
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $37.08
BoneOhio
Down — $13.47
MayorMamdani
Down — $16
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
dvasdkasodk
Down — $6.59