Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 77%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$68.21
Smart Money Signal
10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $743.73 | $751.24 | +$7.51 | 93% 20604-1665 (22269) |
 OhioRiskManagementARB<$100 | Downavg 73.6¢ | $53.49 | $56 | +$2.51 | 50% 54008-54171 (108179) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 73.6¢ | $41.24 | $56 | +$14.76 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 2.9¢ | $12.25 | — | -$12.25 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 74.1¢ | $59.7 | $80.61 | +$20.92 | 56% 15191-12099 (27290) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 67.1¢ | $50.56 | $74.38 | +$23.82 | 52% 5848-5486 (11334) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 92.3¢ | $59.61 | $58 | -$1.61 | 61% 14067-8822 (22889) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 48.5¢ | $25.4 | $40 | +$14.6 | 57% 33225-25562 (58787) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 53.5¢ | $20.73 | $24.9 | +$4.17 | 68% 77726-36976 (114702) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 62.8¢ | $25.96 | $25 | -$0.96 | 88% 52847-6938 (59785) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Upavg 24.7¢ | $10.72 | — | -$10.72 | 54% 9571-8133 (17704) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $7.85 | $10.19 | +$2.34 | 77% 25565-7723 (33288) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 74.2¢ | $16.84 | $8.43 | +$5.71 | 67% 13858-6900 (20758) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $6.71 | $8.08 | +$1.37 | 58% 11317-8292 (19609) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 15.2¢ | $8.7 | — | +$1.1 | 83% 29237-5890 (35127) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 85% 67119-12101 (79220) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 52% 16519-15327 (31846) |
Invested
$743.73
Value
$751.24
PnL
+$7.51
Record
93%
20604-1665 (22269)
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100Invested
$53.49
Value
$56
PnL
+$2.51
Record
50%
54008-54171 (108179)
Both legs:
Invested
$59.7
Value
$80.61
PnL
+$20.92
Record
56%
15191-12099 (27290)
Invested
$50.56
Value
$74.38
PnL
+$23.82
Record
52%
5848-5486 (11334)
Invested
$59.61
Value
$58
PnL
-$1.61
Record
61%
14067-8822 (22889)
Invested
$25.4
Value
$40
PnL
+$14.6
Record
57%
33225-25562 (58787)
Invested
$20.73
Value
$24.9
PnL
+$4.17
Record
68%
77726-36976 (114702)
Invested
$25.96
Value
$25
PnL
-$0.96
Record
88%
52847-6938 (59785)
Invested
$10.72
Value
—
PnL
-$10.72
Record
54%
9571-8133 (17704)
Invested
$7.85
Value
$10.19
PnL
+$2.34
Record
77%
25565-7723 (33288)
Invested
$16.84
Value
$8.43
PnL
+$5.71
Record
67%
13858-6900 (20758)
Invested
$6.71
Value
$8.08
PnL
+$1.37
Record
58%
11317-8292 (19609)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$8.7
Value
—
PnL
+$1.1
Record
83%
29237-5890 (35127)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
85%
67119-12101 (79220)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
16519-15327 (31846)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $751.24
OhioRiskManagement
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $80.61
ply-pm2
Down — $74.38
asidjasiodja
Down — $58
uninformedfloww
Down — $40
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $24.9
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $25
thesidehustle
CTRUp — $0
asdaefef
Down — $10.19