Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Down 71%
3 arb excluded
$1.1K
$59.57
Smart Money Signal
12 of 17 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 40.7¢ | $196.43 | $302.23 | +$105.8 | 52% 5848-5486 (11334) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.7¢ | $122.88 | $302.23 | +$179.35 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 22¢ | $73.55 | — | -$73.55 | |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 67.1¢ | $175.49 | $221.03 | +$45.54 | 57% 33225-25562 (58787) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $210.87 | $213 | +$2.13 | 93% 20604-1665 (22269) |
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100 | Downavg 71.4¢ | $52.96 | $62.68 | +$9.72 | 61% 14067-8822 (22889) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 71.4¢ | $44.78 | $62.68 | +$17.9 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 4.5¢ | $8.18 | — | -$8.18 | |
 UpandDownSyndrome | Downavg 67.7¢ | $101.32 | $89.33 | -$11.99 | 62% 42888-25869 (68757) |
 OhioRiskManagementARB<$100 | Downavg 68.6¢ | $46.54 | $37.54 | -$9 | 50% 54008-54171 (108179) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.6¢ | $25.75 | $37.54 | +$11.79 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 20.1¢ | $20.79 | — | -$20.79 | |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 52.1¢ | $13.83 | $21.77 | +$7.94 | 64% 20058-11389 (31447) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $39.82 | $38.49 | -$1.33 | 58% 16384-12007 (28391) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 45.8¢ | $25.11 | $36.62 | +$11.5 | 71% 21334-8554 (29888) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 84.6¢ | $30.2 | $35.69 | +$5.49 | 56% 15191-12099 (27290) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 78.8¢ | $14.94 | $17 | +$2.06 | 77% 25565-7723 (33288) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 49.2¢ | $13.28 | $27 | +$13.72 | 72% 51435-20417 (71852) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 27.6¢ | $13.81 | — | -$13.81 | 85% 67119-12101 (79220) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $9.6 | $20 | +$10.4 | 68% 77726-36976 (114702) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 12¢ | $4.45 | — | -$4.45 | 77% 28993-8555 (37548) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 27¢ | $1.62 | — | -$1.62 | 58% 11317-8292 (19609) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 14¢ | $0.14 | — | -$0.14 | 67% 14977-7366 (22343) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 76.8¢ | $41.74 | $0 | -$5.88 | 67% 13858-6900 (20758) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 52% 16519-15327 (31846) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 83% 29237-5890 (35127) |
Invested
$196.43
Value
$302.23
PnL
+$105.8
Record
52%
5848-5486 (11334)
Both legs:
Invested
$175.49
Value
$221.03
PnL
+$45.54
Record
57%
33225-25562 (58787)
Invested
$210.87
Value
$213
PnL
+$2.13
Record
93%
20604-1665 (22269)
Invested
$52.96
Value
$62.68
PnL
+$9.72
Record
61%
14067-8822 (22889)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndromeInvested
$101.32
Value
$89.33
PnL
-$11.99
Record
62%
42888-25869 (68757)
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100Invested
$46.54
Value
$37.54
PnL
-$9
Record
50%
54008-54171 (108179)
Both legs:
Invested
$13.83
Value
$21.77
PnL
+$7.94
Record
64%
20058-11389 (31447)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$39.82
Value
$38.49
PnL
-$1.33
Record
58%
16384-12007 (28391)
Invested
$25.11
Value
$36.62
PnL
+$11.5
Record
71%
21334-8554 (29888)
Invested
$30.2
Value
$35.69
PnL
+$5.49
Record
56%
15191-12099 (27290)
Invested
$14.94
Value
$17
PnL
+$2.06
Record
77%
25565-7723 (33288)
Invested
$13.28
Value
$27
PnL
+$13.72
Record
72%
51435-20417 (71852)
Invested
$13.81
Value
—
PnL
-$13.81
Record
85%
67119-12101 (79220)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$20
PnL
+$10.4
Record
68%
77726-36976 (114702)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$4.45
Value
—
PnL
-$4.45
Record
77%
28993-8555 (37548)
Invested
$1.62
Value
—
PnL
-$1.62
Record
58%
11317-8292 (19609)
Invested
$0.14
Value
—
PnL
-$0.14
Record
67%
14977-7366 (22343)
Invested
$41.74
Value
$0
PnL
-$5.88
Record
67%
13858-6900 (20758)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
16519-15327 (31846)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
83%
29237-5890 (35127)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
Down — $221.03
hoodquant
Down — $213
asidjasiodja
ARBArbitrage — excluded
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $89.33
OhioRiskManagement
ARBArbitrage — excluded
dvasdkasodk
Down — $21.77
MayorMamdani
Down — $38.49
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $36.62
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $35.69