Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 85%
2 arb excluded
$734.13
$175.39
Smart Money Signal
11 of 14 top traders (79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 26.2¢ | $68.46 | $261.4 | +$192.94 | 57% 33225-25562 (58787) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 69.8¢ | $137.57 | $132.64 | -$4.93 | 52% 5848-5486 (11334) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.8¢ | $92.62 | $132.64 | +$40.02 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 24.6¢ | $44.95 | — | -$44.95 | |
 UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100 | Downavg 85.8¢ | $60.37 | $59.39 | -$0.98 | 62% 42888-25869 (68757) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 85.8¢ | $50.96 | $59.39 | +$8.43 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 13¢ | $9.41 | — | -$9.41 | |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 79.7¢ | $70.02 | $87.85 | +$17.83 | 50% 54008-54171 (108179) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 64.2¢ | $35.2 | $43.65 | +$8.45 | 68% 77726-36976 (114702) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 73.2¢ | $37.75 | $51.55 | +$13.8 | 56% 15191-12099 (27290) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 60.1¢ | $83.09 | — | -$74.47 | 67% 13858-6900 (20758) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 60.8¢ | $20.7 | $22.09 | +$1.39 | 61% 14067-8822 (22889) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 88.1¢ | $19.45 | $17.06 | -$2.39 | 77% 25565-7723 (33288) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $10.23 | $11.34 | +$1.11 | 64% 20058-11389 (31447) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $13.42 | $18.13 | +$4.71 | 58% 16384-12007 (28391) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $8.1 | $10 | +$1.9 | 83% 29237-5890 (35127) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $5.52 | $12 | +$6.48 | 72% 51435-20417 (71852) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 29¢ | $2.04 | $7.04 | +$5 | 85% 67119-12101 (79220) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 27¢ | $1.35 | — | -$1.35 | 71% 21334-8554 (29888) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 52% 16519-15327 (31846) |
Invested
$68.46
Value
$261.4
PnL
+$192.94
Record
57%
33225-25562 (58787)
Invested
$137.57
Value
$132.64
PnL
-$4.93
Record
52%
5848-5486 (11334)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100Invested
$60.37
Value
$59.39
PnL
-$0.98
Record
62%
42888-25869 (68757)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$70.02
Value
$87.85
PnL
+$17.83
Record
50%
54008-54171 (108179)
Invested
$35.2
Value
$43.65
PnL
+$8.45
Record
68%
77726-36976 (114702)
Invested
$37.75
Value
$51.55
PnL
+$13.8
Record
56%
15191-12099 (27290)
Invested
$83.09
Value
—
PnL
-$74.47
Record
67%
13858-6900 (20758)
Invested
$20.7
Value
$22.09
PnL
+$1.39
Record
61%
14067-8822 (22889)
Invested
$19.45
Value
$17.06
PnL
-$2.39
Record
77%
25565-7723 (33288)
Invested
$10.23
Value
$11.34
PnL
+$1.11
Record
64%
20058-11389 (31447)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$13.42
Value
$18.13
PnL
+$4.71
Record
58%
16384-12007 (28391)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$8.1
Value
$10
PnL
+$1.9
Record
83%
29237-5890 (35127)
Invested
$5.52
Value
$12
PnL
+$6.48
Record
72%
51435-20417 (71852)
Invested
$2.04
Value
$7.04
PnL
+$5
Record
85%
67119-12101 (79220)
Invested
$1.35
Value
—
PnL
-$1.35
Record
71%
21334-8554 (29888)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
16519-15327 (31846)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
Down — $261.4
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
UpandDownSyndrome
ARBArbitrage — excluded
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $87.85
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $43.65
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $51.55
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
asidjasiodja
Down — $22.09
asdaefef
Down — $17.06
dvasdkasodk
Down — $11.34