Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 67%
1 arb excluded
$968.63
$64.09
Smart Money Signal
10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.1¢ | $436.44 | $444.96 | +$8.52 | 93% 20604-1665 (22269) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 60.1¢ | $149.8 | $141.79 | -$8.01 | 52% 5848-5486 (11334) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.1¢ | $85.25 | $141.79 | +$56.53 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 67.8¢ | $64.55 | — | -$64.55 | |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 24.7¢ | $35.11 | $141.95 | +$106.84 | 50% 54008-54171 (108179) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $35.7 | — | -$35.7 | 57% 33225-25562 (58787) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 95.8¢ | $87.96 | $91.83 | +$3.87 | 78% 63103-17885 (80988) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 50.1¢ | $36.04 | — | -$36.04 | 61% 14067-8822 (22889) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 43.5¢ | $29.95 | $57.79 | +$27.84 | 56% 15191-12099 (27290) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 95.6¢ | $22.14 | $20.44 | -$1.7 | 83% 29237-5890 (35127) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 22.5¢ | $7.64 | — | -$7.64 | 64% 20058-11389 (31447) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 83.9¢ | $27.29 | $22.35 | -$4.94 | 77% 25565-7723 (33288) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 58.7¢ | $16.38 | $27.92 | +$11.54 | 58% 16384-12007 (28391) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $14.17 | — | -$14.17 | 67% 13858-6900 (20758) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $5.07 | — | -$5.07 | 72% 51435-20417 (71852) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 48.5¢ | $5.55 | $6.6 | +$1.05 | 71% 21334-8554 (29888) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 37¢ | $2.96 | $8 | +$5.04 | 68% 77726-36976 (114702) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 7¢ | $0.35 | $5 | +$4.65 | 59% 15749-10920 (26669) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 52% 16519-15327 (31846) |
Invested
$436.44
Value
$444.96
PnL
+$8.52
Record
93%
20604-1665 (22269)
Invested
$149.8
Value
$141.79
PnL
-$8.01
Record
52%
5848-5486 (11334)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$35.11
Value
$141.95
PnL
+$106.84
Record
50%
54008-54171 (108179)
Invested
$35.7
Value
—
PnL
-$35.7
Record
57%
33225-25562 (58787)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$87.96
Value
$91.83
PnL
+$3.87
Record
78%
63103-17885 (80988)
Invested
$36.04
Value
—
PnL
-$36.04
Record
61%
14067-8822 (22889)
Invested
$29.95
Value
$57.79
PnL
+$27.84
Record
56%
15191-12099 (27290)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$22.14
Value
$20.44
PnL
-$1.7
Record
83%
29237-5890 (35127)
Invested
$7.64
Value
—
PnL
-$7.64
Record
64%
20058-11389 (31447)
Invested
$27.29
Value
$22.35
PnL
-$4.94
Record
77%
25565-7723 (33288)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$16.38
Value
$27.92
PnL
+$11.54
Record
58%
16384-12007 (28391)
Invested
$14.17
Value
—
PnL
-$14.17
Record
67%
13858-6900 (20758)
Invested
$5.07
Value
—
PnL
-$5.07
Record
72%
51435-20417 (71852)
Invested
$5.55
Value
$6.6
PnL
+$1.05
Record
71%
21334-8554 (29888)
Invested
$2.96
Value
$8
PnL
+$5.04
Record
68%
77726-36976 (114702)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$0.35
Value
$5
PnL
+$4.65
Record
59%
15749-10920 (26669)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
16519-15327 (31846)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $444.96
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $141.95
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
BoneOhio
Down — $91.83
asidjasiodja
CTRUp — $0
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $57.79
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $20.44
dvasdkasodk
CTRUp — $0
asdaefef
Down — $22.35