Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
16
Up 50%
$441.27
-$100.01
Smart Money Signal
8 of 16 top traders (50%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2CTR | Upavg 50.9¢ | $313.63 | — | -$313.63 | 52% 5848-5486 (11334) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 70.6¢ | $46.37 | — | -$41.47 | 67% 13858-6900 (20758) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 63.7¢ | $41.91 | — | -$41.91 | 62% 42888-25869 (68757) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 22.8¢ | $8.9 | $20.46 | +$11.57 | 61% 14067-8822 (22889) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 24.8¢ | $37.67 | $151.78 | +$114.11 | 50% 54008-54171 (108179) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 31.2¢ | $6.25 | $20.06 | +$13.81 | 68% 77726-36976 (114702) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 30.7¢ | $6.36 | $19.38 | +$13.02 | 58% 16384-12007 (28391) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 7.2¢ | $10.28 | $142.41 | +$132.12 | 59% 15749-10920 (26669) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 76.6¢ | $15.6 | — | -$15.6 | 52% 16519-15327 (31846) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 51.3¢ | $8.1 | — | -$8.1 | 83% 29237-5890 (35127) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 14¢ | $3.6 | — | -$3.6 | 64% 20058-11389 (31447) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 45.6¢ | $7.95 | — | -$7.95 | 62% 34047-20694 (54741) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 21.7¢ | $8.6 | $22.61 | +$14.01 | 56% 15191-12099 (27290) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $7 | — | -$7 | 77% 25565-7723 (33288) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $5.77 | $26.23 | +$20.46 | 67% 14977-7366 (22343) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 47.4¢ | $18.19 | $38.35 | +$20.16 | 71% 21334-8554 (29888) |
Invested
$313.63
Value
—
PnL
-$313.63
Record
52%
5848-5486 (11334)
Invested
$46.37
Value
—
PnL
-$41.47
Record
67%
13858-6900 (20758)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$41.91
Value
—
PnL
-$41.91
Record
62%
42888-25869 (68757)
Invested
$8.9
Value
$20.46
PnL
+$11.57
Record
61%
14067-8822 (22889)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$37.67
Value
$151.78
PnL
+$114.11
Record
50%
54008-54171 (108179)
Invested
$6.25
Value
$20.06
PnL
+$13.81
Record
68%
77726-36976 (114702)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$6.36
Value
$19.38
PnL
+$13.02
Record
58%
16384-12007 (28391)
pspspsps5Invested
$10.28
Value
$142.41
PnL
+$132.12
Record
59%
15749-10920 (26669)
Invested
$15.6
Value
—
PnL
-$15.6
Record
52%
16519-15327 (31846)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$8.1
Value
—
PnL
-$8.1
Record
83%
29237-5890 (35127)
Invested
$3.6
Value
—
PnL
-$3.6
Record
64%
20058-11389 (31447)
Invested
$7.95
Value
—
PnL
-$7.95
Record
62%
34047-20694 (54741)
Invested
$8.6
Value
$22.61
PnL
+$14.01
Record
56%
15191-12099 (27290)
Invested
$7
Value
—
PnL
-$7
Record
77%
25565-7723 (33288)
Invested
$5.77
Value
$26.23
PnL
+$20.46
Record
67%
14977-7366 (22343)
Invested
$18.19
Value
$38.35
PnL
+$20.16
Record
71%
21334-8554 (29888)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
UpandDownSyndrome
CTRUp — $0
asidjasiodja
Down — $20.46
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $151.78
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $20.06
MayorMamdani
Down — $19.38
pspspsps5
Down — $142.41
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0