Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET
Resolved Up. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
26
Down 68%
1 arb excluded
$458.4
-$843.62
Smart Money Signal
17 of 26 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2CTR | Downavg 41.2¢ | $177.27 | — | -$177.27 | 52% 5827-5465 (11292) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $147.51 | $149 | +$1.49 | 93% 20539-1653 (22192) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 72.2¢ | $73.78 | — | -$73.78 | 50% 52086-52143 (104229) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $75 | — | -$75 | 55% 39952-33285 (73237) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 55.7¢ | $59.2 | $59.99 | +$11.84 | 67% 13816-6882 (20698) |
 wowitsamazing | Upavg 49.3¢ | $49.93 | $101.32 | +$51.39 | 60% 10605-7189 (17794) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 84.3¢ | $67.65 | $46.38 | -$21.27 | 88% 48649-6911 (55560) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 84.3¢ | $38.4 | — | -$38.4 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63.1¢ | $29.25 | $46.38 | +$17.13 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $49.95 | $35 | -$14.6 | 68% 75669-35734 (111403) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Downavg 52.9¢ | $32.87 | — | -$32.87 | 71% 49577-20345 (69922) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 50.2¢ | $54.34 | — | -$54.34 | 77% 27124-8199 (35323) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 58.9¢ | $226.39 | — | -$226.39 | 57% 33114-25464 (58578) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 24.3¢ | $29.06 | — | -$29.06 | 66% 14228-7218 (21446) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 86.7¢ | $31.91 | $26 | -$5.91 | 63% 19526-11360 (30886) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 74.8¢ | $17.71 | — | -$17.71 | 61% 14030-8793 (22823) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 94¢ | $18.8 | $20 | +$1.2 | 78% 60786-17046 (77832) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $36.74 | — | -$36.74 | 71% 20772-8504 (29276) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 56.1¢ | $10.68 | $15.7 | +$5.01 | 56% 15141-12065 (27206) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $12.27 | — | -$12.27 | 56% 40908-32497 (73405) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 47.6¢ | $37.85 | — | -$37.85 | 58% 11123-8150 (19273) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 49.5¢ | $9.93 | — | -$9.93 | 70% 29557-12549 (42106) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $14.04 | — | -$14.04 | 70% 44729-19033 (63762) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 83.5¢ | $9.15 | — | -$9.15 | 76% 24812-7703 (32515) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 69.7¢ | $73.42 | — | -$73.42 | 58% 16353-11988 (28341) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $9.45 | $5 | +$3.85 | 83% 28668-5871 (34539) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $4.9 | — | -$4.9 | 84% 61854-12050 (73904) |
Invested
$177.27
Value
—
PnL
-$177.27
Record
52%
5827-5465 (11292)
Invested
$147.51
Value
$149
PnL
+$1.49
Record
93%
20539-1653 (22192)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$73.78
Value
—
PnL
-$73.78
Record
50%
52086-52143 (104229)
Invested
$75
Value
—
PnL
-$75
Record
55%
39952-33285 (73237)
Invested
$59.2
Value
$59.99
PnL
+$11.84
Record
67%
13816-6882 (20698)
wowitsamazingInvested
$49.93
Value
$101.32
PnL
+$51.39
Record
60%
10605-7189 (17794)
Invested
$67.65
Value
$46.38
PnL
-$21.27
Record
88%
48649-6911 (55560)
Both legs:
Invested
$49.95
Value
$35
PnL
-$14.6
Record
68%
75669-35734 (111403)
Invested
$32.87
Value
—
PnL
-$32.87
Record
71%
49577-20345 (69922)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$54.34
Value
—
PnL
-$54.34
Record
77%
27124-8199 (35323)
Invested
$226.39
Value
—
PnL
-$226.39
Record
57%
33114-25464 (58578)
Invested
$29.06
Value
—
PnL
-$29.06
Record
66%
14228-7218 (21446)
Invested
$31.91
Value
$26
PnL
-$5.91
Record
63%
19526-11360 (30886)
Invested
$17.71
Value
—
PnL
-$17.71
Record
61%
14030-8793 (22823)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$18.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$1.2
Record
78%
60786-17046 (77832)
Invested
$36.74
Value
—
PnL
-$36.74
Record
71%
20772-8504 (29276)
Invested
$10.68
Value
$15.7
PnL
+$5.01
Record
56%
15141-12065 (27206)
Invested
$12.27
Value
—
PnL
-$12.27
Record
56%
40908-32497 (73405)
Invested
$37.85
Value
—
PnL
-$37.85
Record
58%
11123-8150 (19273)
Invested
$9.93
Value
—
PnL
-$9.93
Record
70%
29557-12549 (42106)
Invested
$14.04
Value
—
PnL
-$14.04
Record
70%
44729-19033 (63762)
Invested
$9.15
Value
—
PnL
-$9.15
Record
76%
24812-7703 (32515)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$73.42
Value
—
PnL
-$73.42
Record
58%
16353-11988 (28341)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$9.45
Value
$5
PnL
+$3.85
Record
83%
28668-5871 (34539)
Invested
$4.9
Value
—
PnL
-$4.9
Record
84%
61854-12050 (73904)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $149
OhioRiskManagement
CTRDown — $0
almach
CTRDown — $0
aaa221
Up — $59.99
wowitsamazing
Up — $101.32
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
drfc4eybh7i8
Up — $35
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
ohioism
CTRDown — $0